New England to play critical role in selecting Democratic candidate

While New England states usually do not swing the general election, they often play a critical role in terms of selecting presidential candidates. Once again, New Hampshire is the first state primary to be held on February 11, 2020 … just 24 weeks from today. We expect that only three or four candidates will emerge from New Hampshire as viable candidates on the Democratic side. Recall that in the 2016 Republican primary, President Trump won the statewide primary vote with a slim plurality of 36% with John Kasich in second and Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio trailing far behind. Bush’s campaign was essentially over, even though he hung on until withdrawing after a weak showing in South Carolina. This year, it seems that New Hampshire favors the 3 top tier candidates: Vice President Biden given his name recognition and perceived electability, Senator Warren given her bona fide progressive views and neighboring state appeal, and Senator Sanders, the 2016 winner and Vermont native. Indeed, Sanders’s appeal may be underestimated. He won the 2016 vote with 61% of the vote against Senator Clinton and probably only needs half of those voters to win this time. That probably leaves only one other candidate who can leave New Hampshire as viable. Our bet for the fourth candidate would be either Senator Kamala Harris or Representative Tulsi Gabbard (the latter a dark horse who we think may be underestimated).

However, it is not just New Hampshire that will matter this year. Just two weeks later on March 3, 2020 comes Super Tuesday which includes three New England states: Massachusetts, Vermont and Maine. Massachusetts and Vermont will be must win states for Senators Warren and Sanders given their home state status. A loss in either state would likely end their campaign but a win could give either campaign a reason to keep going as the field narrows. Our bet is that post Super Tuesday, the race will likely be a two (possibly three) person race. Finally, on April 28, 2020, Connecticut and Rhode Island join other eastern states such as New York and Pennsylvania as part of the last multi-state primary. In 2016, Trump finished off Cruz and Kasich by sweeping all of these eastern states. The same could easily occur in this year’s Democratic primary.

Bottom line: New England states matter in the presidential nominating process and are likely to be critical in deciding who takes on Trump next November.