Sitting Presidents and the New Hampshire Primary

While the Democratic primary in New Hampshire is likely to garner the lion share of attention, it is worth remembering that we will also have a Republican contest. So far, President Trump has two announced competitors, former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld and former Illinois Congressman and talk host Joe Walsh. Neither Weld nor Walsh is likely to pose a significant challenge to President Trump. History has shown that presidents that have little to no challenge in New Hampshire have a much better chance of being re-elected. In 2012, President Obama had only token opposition scoring 82% of the votes cast (interestingly Ron Paul came in second … in New Hampshire you can vote for the other party candidates even though they do not count towards the primary voting!). Similarly, in 2004, President Bush (George W) won 80% of the vote (with John Kerry taking second) while in 1996, President Clinton won easily with 84% of the vote. Thus, not since 1992 have we seen the incumbent president face a serious primary challenge. In 1992, the Buchanan Brigade assembled in wintery New Hampshire and posed a serious challenge to President Bush. Bush would prevail with 53% of the primary vote to Buchanan’s 37%, but the close primary vote signaled weakness heading into the general election. Thus, we should pay attention to the Republican primary vote. If Trump can win 80%+ of the Republican primary votes and avoid a serious challenge from within the party, it will be a signal that he has a reasonable chance of being re-elected. It’s still six months away, but for now we don’t see Weld or Walsh gaining traction and giving Trump much of a challenge. That could change if a stronger Republican candidate, maybe former Ohio Governor John Kasich, were to enter the race.