Two new polls show a tightening three way national race between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for the Democratic nomination. A poll from Monmouth University has Sanders and Warren at 20% with Biden at 19%. A poll from Economist/YouGov gives a similar picture of the race: Biden at 22%, Sanders at 19% and Warren at 18%. Warren’s surge now has been confirmed by numerous polls, overflow crowds (~15,000 in Seattle) and $19 million in fund raising in the second quarter. Indeed, Warren is now the leader on predictit.org with a 34% likelihood of winning. We think it is interesting that Warren is from Massachusetts and that more major party nominees have come from Massachusetts than any other state. Candidates Romney, Kerry, and Dukakis have all hailed from Massachusetts. Less promising, all three Massachusetts presidential candidates since 1988 have fallen short in the general election. Not since John F Kennedy has the nation elected a Massachusetts politician. So if history is a good guide for the future, Senator Warren may win the Democratic nomination, but her likelihood of winning in the general election is less certain.
Independent Political Analysis
NewEnglandPolitics.com 