“It’s the economy”

During the 1992 presidential campaign, strategist James Carville put a sign up at Clinton campaign headquarters that read “the economy, stupid” to remind everyone to stay on message and focus on the weak economy. So how is the economy performing in 2019? The New England economy (just like the broader American economy) has performed relatively well. Who is responsible for the economy is open for debate, but the numbers speak for themselves. The unemployment rate in Vermont is 2.1%, the lowest rate in decades and the lowest rate in the entire nation. Similarly, first primary state New Hampshire has a 2.5% unemployment rate, the third lowest rate in the nation. Rounding out the New England states, Massachusetts has a 2.9% rate, Maine 3.0%, Rhode Island 3.5% and Connecticut 3.6%. All are below the 2016 rates when Trump was elected. The low unemployment rate poses a challenge for Democratic challengers, but the President’s tendency to stir up controversy and go off message may allow the Democratic challengers to focus on other issues such as healthcare, immigration and tariffs. This year it may be the President’s strategists that will need to put up “the economy, stupid” sign but it’s doubtful that they will be successful in keeping the President from tweeting. Then again, it’s still a long time to election day 2020 and a lot could change with the economy.