The Libertarian Vote and Tulsi Gabbard

Historically, New Hampshire has had a sizable libertarian electorate both on the Republican and Democratic side. In the 2016 Presidential election, the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won 30,694 votes or 4% of the electorate, considerably more than Green candidate Jill Stein’s 6465 votes and more than 10x the vote differential between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Similarly, in presidential primaries, libertarian leading candidates have done well in New Hampshire. In 2012, Ron Paul won 56,872 votes or 22.8% of the vote in the Republican primary, finishing in second place behind Mitt Romney. Even among New Hampshire Democrats, there is a strong libertarian tendency. For example, in 2012 Ron Paul placed second to President Obama, admittedly with only 4% of the vote, in the Democratic Primary! So who in 2020 is likely to attract interest from libertarian voters? We don’t think that any of the front runners on the Democratic side (Biden, Sanders or Warren) are likely to garner much interest. Similarly, President Trump has at best shallow appeal to libertarian voters (they may like his tax cuts and less interventionist foreign policy, but they are offset by deficit spending and tariffs). One candidate who might fare well is Tulsi Gabbard. None other than Ron Paul has called Gabbard the “best” candidate on foreign policy. While Gabbard may be excluded from the next Democratic debate due to her lower national polling, we feel that her appeal may be underestimated and that she would actually be a formidable general election candidate with cross over appeal.