Concerns over Biden in NH

The mainstream press is starting to pick up on what we have been highlighting now in several blogs. Biden is in trouble in New Hampshire. Politico has a lead article today entitled “Top Biden backer warns he’s at risk of losing New Hampshire.” We agree. We highlighted several weeks ago that in 2008 Biden performed poorly in New Hampshire winning less than 1000 votes. He is up against two progressive senatorial candidates from neighboring states who are better on the stump than Biden is and frankly outperforming Biden so far in connecting to voters. Both Warren and Sanders are getting bigger crowds and have clearer messages. Biden seems to be alternating between trying to be more progressive than his record (ie. claiming that he was always against the Iraq war and that he wants to end fossil fuels) and then highlighting that he is more of a traditional Democrat that may win back Pennsylvania and Michigan voters. It’s difficult to try to have it both ways. Add to this the gaffes and emerging health concerns and it has been a tough week for the Biden campaign. The national polls still show Biden out in front, but we don’t think this is capturing the pulse of the early states, either Iowa or New Hampshire. To be sure, Biden is fortunate to be running against two progressives who are splitting the far left vote. However, to be successful, Biden needs to tighten his message. We think he would be wise to stick to the center lane (which he has to himself), campaign on a return to normalcy, and woo the centrist Democrats and others who want to win in the general election. Running too far to the left simply is not authentic for Biden.