Warren, not Biden, is the front runner

Another day and more signs that former Vice President Joe Biden’s status as the front runner has diminished. First, Economist/You Gov is out with a new national poll that has Senator Elizabeth Warren tied with Biden at 26% for the lead with Sanders in third with 16%. Then there is a Boston Herald/FPU poll for New Hampshire that shows Senator Bernie Sanders up 8% over Biden in New Hampshire with Warren close behind in third place. In short, Biden is no longer the presumptive candidate. Several news articles report that party leaders have been moving away from Biden in both Iowa and New Hampshire. We see an interesting dynamic emerging. Biden, Warren and Sanders are the only candidates polling in double digits, but two of the three are running as leftist progressives. We think that ultimately the race will come down to Biden v. one of the progressives … we think it’s going to be Warren. Warren is an ideologically pure progressive with a populist, anti-banking pedigree that is unparalleled but she comes across as less crazy than Sanders. We believe she is well positioned to win Iowa, gain the momentum, siphon of Sanders voters, and ultimately win New Hampshire as well. Unlike Larry Sabato, we don’t have a crystal ball, but if we had to put forward the most likely scenario that’s it. Advantage Warren.