The Third Debate

With hopes of turning Texas blue, the Democratic Party staged its third debate in Texas, this time with a slimmed down line-up that put all of the leading three candidates (Warren, Biden and Sanders) on the stage together for the first time. Like most debates, it takes a few days for the narrative to emerge, but here are our top 3 takeaways: (i) none of the top 3 had a break out night. Warren probably had the best night of all three, emerged unscathed, and spoke competently. That said, she did not dominate the debate and spoke sparingly. Biden passed the test, but just barely. He looks older than his age and frequently gets lost when responding to questions. Sanders voice was raspy and also looked his age. His fiery rhetoric in defense of socialism may appeal to the most progressive wing of the party, but we just don’t see it resonating in the general election. In short, we think Warren remains the leader of the top 3. (ii) the rest of the pack had a surprisingly good night. In particular, we think that Senators Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker distinguished themselves. They may not rise up to the top 3 but they are both positioning themselves as likely Vice Presidential candidates. (iii) Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard (who was excluded from the debate) are generating the most energy. The DNC made a mistake in excluding Gabbard, a female veteran and libertarian leaning congresswoman who out polls many of the candidates that were included. Twitter was filled with comments about Gabbard’s exclusion and the rigging of the system. Yang, whose brazenly redistributionist policies have attracted youthful ideologues, is completely underestimated by the career politicians and continues to generate excitement. Our bet is that Yang and Gabbard will outperform many of the more conventional candidates.