Warren and Yang with the momentum!

It’s always helpful to revisit the immediate takeaways from a debate to see what narratives have staying power. Our immediate takeaway was that of the top 3 candidates Elizabeth Warren had the best night by essentially meeting expectations. Politico has a story today entitled “The Ticking Time Bomb in Biden’s ‘Record Player’ Answer: It’s not about his age. It’s about whether he has offended black voters” which highlights that Biden’s debate answer to one question not only dated him as from the 1970s, but also was deeply condescending to black voters. Then there is Rolling Stone which led with an opinion piece on Biden entitled “Why it’s time for Joe to go.” In short, Biden’s debate performances have underwhelmed and given rise to a narrative that he is past his prime, unable to debate or speak publicly without committing gaffes, and potentially not up to a grueling Presidential campaign (just as Hillary’s health became in issue in 2016). Then there is Bernie. Today there are reports from New Hampshire that Sanders is restructuring his New Hampshire campaign, not a good sign for someone that won the state convincingly four years ago, but now is struggling to eak out more than 20% of the primary votes. Sanders is well-respected by the progressive base, but like Biden, they increasingly see him as past his prime. His raspy voice and disheveled appearance in last week’s debate did little to rejuvenate the campaign. This leaves Warren who not only debated competently but is unquestionably running the most effective campaign so far. One might have expected a fourth candidate to emerge, but the most likely candidate, Senator Kamala Harris has now had two poor debate performances in a row. Once again, she was unprepared to respond to attacks on why she prosecuted minorities for drug offenses as prosecutor but then laughed about her own use of marijuana. Tulsi Gabbard raised this issue in the second debate but somehow Harris was not ready with a cogent response when the moderator questioned her again in the third debate. We think her campaign — like that of Buttigieg, Beto, and Castro — is essentially over. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar performed well in the debate but it’s probably too late for them as well. Interestingly, after the debate, Harris slipped to fifth place in predictit.org’s waging markets behind Andrew Yang, who garnered the greatest internet excitement by promising $12,000 to ten lucky internet devotees. Yang now has leaped into fourth place propelled by youthful voters attracted by promises of free money. At least for now, it’s Warren and Yang with the momentum!