State v. National Polls

The national media continues to highlight that Vice President Joe Biden is leading the national Democratic Primary polling. Indeed, three recent polls (Fox News, Economist/YouGov, and Survey USA) all were released on Wednesday or Thursday of this week and showed Biden with a lead of +11, +5, and +14. Good news for the Biden camp. The problem, however, is that in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire which will go first, Biden’s lead has essentially evaporated. In Iowa, there were two recent polls out from Iowa State and David Binder Research, with one showing Warren in the lead by +8 with Biden tied with Sanders for second and one showing Biden leading Warren by +2. Let’s call it a dead heat for now in Iowa between Warren and Biden. Then if we turn to New Hampshire, the most recent Boston Globe poll from September 11, showed Sanders leading by +9. Recall that Sanders won New Hampshire in 2000, trouncing Hillary Clinton. The challenge here is that Biden cannot afford to go 0/2 in Iowa and New Hampshire. A win by Warren in Iowa and a win by Warren in New Hampshire would shift the momentum dramatically away from Biden. We don’t think Biden can wait for South Carolina and score a win. By that time, the race will be between Sanders and Warren. What other candidates may be dark horses that could do better than anticipated in Iowa or New Hampshire? We continue to believe that Tulsi Gabbard has a unique appeal to more libertarian Democratic voters and could surprise on the upside, particularly in New Hampshire.