Stable Party Registration in New England

New England Politics decided to analyze the changes in party registration throughout New England, looking to see if there has been any significant change since the November 2016 election. Based on media reports, one might believe that the “resistance” to Donald Trump’s election has resulted in a major shift in registration in favor of the Democratic Party. The reality, however, is that the party affiliations are little changed. New Hampshire is the only purple state in New England. According to the most recent registration numbers (May 2019), Republicans represent 30.0% of the electorate versus 28.3% for the Democrats and Independents at 41.7% … essentially unchanged from Nov. 2016 (30.7% Republicans, 28.7% Democrats and 40.7% Independents). Other states show little change as well: Connecticut Republicans unchanged at 21.4% while Democrats are down slightly from 37.0% to 36.6%; Maine Republicans at 27.3% (v. 27.2% in 2016) and Democrats at 33.1% (v. 33.2% in 2016); Mass Republicans at 10.3% (v. 10.7% in 2016) and Democrats at 32.9% (v. 34.2% in 2016); and RI Republicans at 12.2% (v. 11.8% in 2016) and Democrats at 39.4% (unchanged from 2016). Note that Vermont does not report registration. Thus, in sum, most states show little to no change in party registration. If anything, there is a slight increase in unaffiliated/Independent voter registration while Republican and Democratic registration is little changed. We will monitor registration closely but as of now there is no indication of any substantive change in the electorate party affiliation. Bottom line, New Hampshire will likely be very close in 2020 while the other states lean heavily toward the Democratic candidate.