Thoughts about Impeachment

With Washington consumed by discussion about impeachment, we thought we would highlight our key takeaways: First, we think that reaction to the Ukraine Impeachment controversy will largely fall on partisan lines and is unlikely to sway Republicans or Democratic voters. It is uncertain how Independents will respond but our bet is that it will not be well received by most independents. Second, we think that now Pelosi has announced the inquiry, she will be forced to bring the impeachment inquiry to a vote. To do otherwise, would incur the wrath of the more progressive wing of her party. Third, our prediction is that Trump will be impeached in the House by a slim majority of the House, but that the Senate will vote overwhelmingly against a conviction. Indeed, we don’t think it will come even close to the required 2/3 vote in the Senate. Fourth, we believe that Pelosi had two primary reasons for going ahead with the Impeachment Inquiry: (a) to maintain the support of her progressive base led by Representative Cortez; and (b) to change the narrative in advance of the release of the Inspector General Report on the FISA abuse/FBI spying on President Trump. Fifth, politically, we view this entire episode as quite negative for Vice President Biden as he seeks the Democratic nomination. Indeed, we note that predict.org now has Elizabeth Warren as having a 50% chance of winning the nomination with Biden only at 23%. This is a huge shift in the past few days and suggests that Biden has been badly damaged. Finally, we think that the entire episode signals that we are likely to see an extremely divisive battle in 2020 between Trump and Warren but one that will pose clear policy choices. A lot will be at stake in 2020.