A lot has changed in the race for the Democratic nomination for President. Two weeks ago, we highlighted that Warren, rather than Biden, should be considered the front runner. Today, that has become conventional wisdom. The latest national poll released this week from Economist / You Gov put Warren in the lead with 28 percent, Biden falling to second place with 22 percent and Sanders dropping to 13 percent in 3rd place. There were two key events that occurred in the past 10 days which contributed to Warren’s rise:
(1) The news that Bernie Sanders suffered a heart attack while campaigning this week has essentially finished his campaign. Sanders’ support had already been gradually falling. We think his health scare combined with his age will end his campaign. The Democratic Party is not going to choose a 78 year old candidate that has just suffered a serious medical condition. Expect his support to drop below 5 percent within a few weeks. Based on his ideology, it is likely that much of his support will migrate to Senator Warren.
(2) Speaker Pelosi decided to launch impeachment inquiry over a whistleblower’s complaint that President Trump called the Prime Minister of Ukraine requesting assistance in investigating Crowdstrike’s role in the 2016 election and potential corruption involving Senator Joe Biden and his son. We continue to doubt that this inquiry will lead to Trump’s ouster from the Presidency. Potentially Democrats will succeed in impeaching Trump in the House, but it is very unlikely that 2/3 of the Senate will go along with the House in convicting Trump, a candidate with nearly 95% approval among Republicans. That said, we believe the real collateral damage is to Biden himself, who not only must allay concerns about his age (76 ) but now has to fend off concerns about corruption.
In short, it has been a very good month for Senator Warren. However, we at NewEnglandPolitics.com believe that she is peaking too early. It would have been much better for Warren if the prior dynamic — a three way race between her, Biden and Sanders — had continued until the Iowa primary and essentially prevented any of the other candidates from emerging. However, with Sanders knocked out by health concerns and Biden damaged by Ukraine, suddenly Warren is alone at the top. We believe that many national Democrats will question how well Warren will fare in 2020 against Trump, creating an opening for a third candidate. Who could that be? We are not sure, but the simultaneous weakening of both Sanders and Biden combined with concerns over Warren’s electability opens the door to the rise of another candidate.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 