There are only a few high profile elections coming this November. Accordingly, we have decided to profile a few of the local New England races that may offer insight into the political trends in our communities. Today, we highlight the race for First Selectman in Greenwich, CT. Greenwich is a wealthy suburban town comprised of 62,000 residents, making it the 10th largest municipality in Connecticut and an important demographic for the 2020 Presidential election.
Historically, Greenwich has been a Republican stronghold, but in recent years it has become much more competitive. With respect to voter registration, in 2012, 37% of the Greenwich electorate were registered Republicans, 25% Democrats, and 37% unaffiliated. Today, in 2019, the gap between the parties has narrowed with Republicans down to 34%, Democrats up to 27% and Independents steady at 37%. The rising strength of the Democratic Party has been most evident in Presidential elections. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Greenwich handily over President Obama by a vote of 56% to 44%. Four years later in 2016, Hillary Clinton reversed the result by defeating Donald Trump by 59% to 41%.
In the 2017 municipal elections, Democrats fared much better than they had in 2015 or 2013 by winning the Board of Estimate and Taxation vote and coming very close to winning the vote for First Selectman. Democrat Sandy Litvak, the husband of the founder of the Greenwich Indivisible Chapter, ran against the incumbent first selectman Peter Tesei. Tesei, a popular local politician, won by a narrow 54% to 46% margin. Prior to 2017, Tesei had coasted to victories as first selectman, having won his re-election in 2015 by nearly a 3:1 margin. In 2019, Tesei decided to step down from his role, creating an open race between Democratic BET member Jill Oberlander, a current BET member, and Republican Fred Camillo, a current CT State Representative .
We expect this year’s contest to be quite close, with the party affiliations trends changing and both parties putting forward experienced candidates. If Republicans are to fare better in 2020 than they did in 2016 or 2018, they will need to win over suburban voters in places such as Greenwich. We believe that Camillo, the Republican candidate, still holds a small edge, largely because he is better known in the community and is strong in some key sections in Greenwich including Cos Cob and Byram. That said, the trend towards the Democrats among suburban voters is borne out by recent elections. We will be watching Greenwich as a window into Suburban voters who in several key states could play a key role in 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 