Much of the press has been focused on recent polls showing (i) support for impeachment rising and (ii) the leading Democratic Presidential candidates enjoying a large lead over President Trump. For example, take Fox News’ latest 2020 presidential election match up between Trump and both Warren and Biden. Fox News claims that Biden and Warren enjoy a +10 point lead over Trump. Then there was MSNBC which reported “Poll: nearly two-thirds of American support impeachment.” We don’t believe these polls.
The first problem is that many of the recent polls seem to have demographics that are inconsistent with the likely voting electorate. Take the most recent Fox News poll that showed Biden and Warren leading Trump by +10 points. 48% of the poll responders indicated that they identified as Democrats and 37% as Republicans. Compare that to the Pew polls on party registration. According to Pew, 29% of the population is Republican, 31% Democrats and 38% Independents. Compare that to Pew’s poll from Nov 2016 when it said 27% of the population was Republican, 31% Democratic and 36% Independent. In short, party registration is essentially unchanged from 2016 and it is extremely unlikely that the voting electorate will have an 11 percent Democratic edge over Republicans in 2020. If you adjust the Fox Poll to make it comparable to the 2016 electorate, the margin becomes a dead heat.
Second, we think the wording of many of the Impeachment polls is creating biased results. Pollsters know that how you ask a question has a dramatic impact on how people respond. Look at how the latest Fox poll asked about impeachment: “How troubling do you find the situation surrounding President Trump’s dealings with theUkrainian president — extremely, very, somewhat, or not at all?” The wording immediately reinforces a negative impression of Trump and then the four responses lead most responders to select one of the first two answers. In short, the structure of these polls is suspect.
Finally, we believe that a subset of Trump voters are hesitant to tell pollsters that they are supporting Trump. It is difficult to provide substantive evidence for this hypothesis and many pollsters doubt the validity of this argument. However, we believe that given the popular media’s unusual dislike of Trump, the hidden Trump vote is greater than for a typical politician.
In summary, we would not put much stock in polls that show Democrats leading Trump by a wide margin or impeachment support growing rapidly. Trump is a polarizing President but his support among Republicans and some Independents remains similar to what it was when he won four years ago. The reality is that 2020 is likely to be a very close election and no one should underestimate Trump’s potential to win re-election.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 