Yesterday, voters in Louisiana went to the polls in an open “jungle” primary election to elect their Governor. Louisiana has an unusual election system where the first election is open to all candidates. If any candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, that candidate wins the election. If no candidate breaks the 50% mark, the top 2 candidates — regardless of party — move to the final election.
Incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards was hoping to avoid a runoff and achieve the 50% market. Despite being perhaps the most conservative Democratic Governor in the country (certainly the most high profile pro-life Democrat public official), Edwards fell short winning 47% of the vote. Edwards will face Republican businessman Eddie Rispone who took second with 28% of the vote, narrowly beating fellow Republican and US Representative Ralph Abraham for the second spot. A few weeks ago, it appeared based on polls that Edwards had a good shot of winning outright, but that was before President Trump got involved and staged a massive rally in Louisiana on the eve of the election to rally the Republican faithful.
Here are our key takeaways and lessons from Louisiana:
1) Notwithstanding the impeachment inquiry, President Trump remains the dominant political force in the country. His ability to galvanize voters at the local level is reinforced by every special election. We saw it in Louisiana just as we saw it a few months ago in the two North Carolina special congressional elections, where Trump staged rallies shortly before the election lifting Republican candidates to victory. Expect Trump to be even more visible going forward and to stage similar rallies for other upcoming elections such as Kentucky’s gubernatorial election where Republican Matt Bevin is in a close re-election battle.
2) Trump’s ability to galvanize voters will keep Republicans in both the House and Senate on his side which means that the impeachment inquiry is unlikely to proceed. Absent new and much more damaging information on impeachment, impeachment efforts are doomed to fail.
3) Democrats such as Governor Edwards can compete in the South, but to do so they need to be conservative on social issues. The primary reason that Edwards is competitive in Louisiana is that he is pro-life. The Democratic Party should consider being more welcoming to social conservatives particularly at the state level if they want to be successful nationally and reverse the Republican hold on the South.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 