We doubt that many voters watched the whole Democratic debate, but we did. Here are our top 10 observations:
1. The two leading candidates, Biden and Warren, managed to avoid major gaffes, but neither really shone. In fact, we think that many of the second tier candidates including Senator Cory Booker, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Representative Tulsi Gabbard had better nights.
2. Senator Warren, the current front runner, refused to answer a yes or no question about whether her medicare for all plan would be funded by a tax increase on the middle class. We don’t think this is a good debate strategy and makes her look like a typical politician. Her agenda of a wealth tax, universal healthcare, universal childcare, universal free college, breaking up big Tech and ending fracking and fossil fuels may appeal to the Democratic base but we don’t think it will resonate in a general election. Tonight was probably neutral for her campaign for the party nomination, but looking forward to the election v. 2020, we think she continues to give Trump lots of sound bites to attack.
3. Former Vice President Biden frequently got lost when answering questions. He kept correcting himself, sometimes made strange transitions from one issue to another, and seemed to be relieved when his time was up. His non-answer on his son Hunter Biden’s financial involvement in Ukraine and China also highlighted that Trump has wounded his campaign badly. We don’t think he had a strong night.
4. Senator Cory Booker had a good night. He clearly has decided that he is not going to criticize any fellow Democrat while simultaneously offering constructive suggestions about what Democrats support, rather than just criticizing Trump. We believe he would be an effective Democratic candidate and might be able to reconstitute the Obama coalition. He also is well positioned to be the Democratic VP if Warren becomes the nominee.
5. Mayor Pete Buttigieg stood out by offering coherent answers and coming across as more moderate than Senators Warren and Sanders. As a veteran and midwesterner, he seems more aware of what it takes to win a swing state like Ohio or Michigan and made a good case that abolishing private health care plans would be politically damaging. Buttigieg bears watching as a potential sleeper candidate.
6. Congressman Tulsi Gabbard was a welcome addition to the debate. At age 38, Gabbard would represent a generational change. She also stood out as someone who was not afraid to give straightforward answers. Just as she took on Kamala Harris in a prior debate, she directed several questions to Senator Warren. Gabbard was also the only Democratic candidate to support restrictions on abortion in the third trimester. She is unlikely to win the election, but has distinguished herself as an independent thinker.
7. A few candidates were present at the debate but had almost no impact. Most surprising is the relatively inconsequential performance of Senator Kamala Harris. For much of the debate, she barely spoke and said little that was memorable other than calling for Twitter to ban President Trump. Other candidates who needed to break out but didn’t included Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer. Only one of these five candidates (Yang) is likely to be in the next debate.
8. Senator Bernie Sanders was forced to address concerns about his age (78) and recent heart attack. We don’t think voters want an 80 year old president. Sanders again called for a socialist “revolution.” We sense that Sanders recognizes that he will not be the Democratic nominee, but is trying to push the agenda further to the left.
9. It will be interesting to see how the polls change post debate. Perhaps Senator Warren did well enough to maintain her lead and momentum, but we think her performance will have many moderate Democrats and Independents worried about the general election. Biden’s best chance is to tout his electability, but with every debate it becomes clear that he is past his peak. However, as long as Biden and Sanders stay in the race, they block one of the other less radical candidates from becoming a top tier candidate who could challenge Warren.
10. We close by commenting on the impeachment inquiry. Our sense is that the daily coverage on impeachment is taking attention away from the primary campaign. We believe that Pelosi felt forced to launch the inquiry but that this was a strategic blunder. More attention on impeachment leaves less attention on the Democratic race.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 