Who could be the Democratic VP candidate?

In October 2015, few political prognosticators would have guessed that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee, much less predicted that then Indiana Governor Mike Pence would be Trump’s running mate. Recall that Pence actually had endorsed Ted Cruz during the primary and came from a reliably conservative state with few electoral votes. Still, Pence proved to be a masterful choice, reassuring evangelical Christians that they should support Donald Trump and providing a steady hand in an often chaotic administration.

So who could be the Democratic VP candidate. We highlight the top 3 potential VP choices for the two front runners, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Let’s start with Elizabeth Warren.

Warren is a progressive and believes strongly in identity politics. As a white female, we believe that she is likely to want her running mate to be viewed as a diverse candidate and one that is sufficiently progressive. We don’t think she will necessarily try to balance the ticket with a man, but rather is likely to care more about picking a black, hispanic or LGBTQ running mate. Hence, we see three likely VP picks: (i) Senator Cory Booker – Booker works on all levels for Warren. He is a sitting US Senator, black (a key demographic that Democrats need), energetic (age 50), and a liberal progressive, but not a self proclaimed socialist. In short, we think Booker is the clear front-runner for a Warren VP and might actually be a good choice if she wants to win. (ii) Stacey Abrams – Abrams came close to winning the Georgia Governorship and is a progressive Democratic favorite. Politically, she is closer to Warren than Booker and would also represent an appeal to black females. Selecting Abrams would be an attempt to energize the base and present the first dual female ticket. (iii) Julian Castro – Warren might select Castro as a youthful progressive candidate from Texas who could potentially draw hispanics in a few key states like Florida and Texas.

We don’t think Biden is going to end up as the nominee, but if he does who might he select? We believe that it is a near certainty that Biden will select a woman. So our top 3 choices are: (i) Elizabeth Warren – if Biden edges out Warren for the Democratic nomination, we believe he will offer Warren the VP position and try to unify the party. Warren is not the perfect nominee given her age and radical politics, but Biden may not have much choice if he wins by a small margin with Warren coming a close second. (ii) Senator Amy Klobuchar – we believe this would be Biden’s best choice. As a more centrist candidate from the Midwest, Klobuchar would signal the Democrats’ strategy of trying to win back the key rust belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. (iii) Senator Kamala Harris – Harris would have been the first choice of the Biden team but for the first debate when Harris went after Biden. As a black female in her 50s, Harris would help Biden solidify female progressive support. She has not had the best presidential campaign, but remains a Democratic favorite.

So there you have our picks. Let’s see what happens!