We are three months away from the Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020 and the Democratic nomination remains somewhat muddled. The latest polls highlight a few interesting developments in the race.
First, with respect to Iowa, Senator Elizabeth Warren remains the clear front runner. According to the latest Iowa State poll released last week, Warren leads with 28 percent of the vote. What has changed, however, is that Mayor Pete Buttigieg has moved into second place with 20 percent followed by Bernie Sanders in third place at 18 percent. What about former Vice President Joe Biden? He trails at a distant fourth place with 12 percent. While it might be easy to dismiss a single poll, all of the most recent Iowa polls show Buttigieg rising and Biden falling.
Second, if we look at New Hampshire, the latest poll from CNN has Sanders regaining the top spot with 21 percent, slightly ahead of Warren at 18 percent and Biden at 15 percent. Sanders won the 2016 Democratic primary beating Hillary Clinton and now appears to be regaining his lead in New Hampshire following the endorsement from Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez after his recent heart attack. Buttigieg has moved into fourth with 10 percent.
Third, if we look at the national polls, Biden still is in the front with 27 percent according to the Real Clear Politics poll average with Warren (21 percent) in second and Sanders (17 percent) third.
So what does it mean? We have five observations: (1) Biden’s candidacy is in trouble. He is trailing badly in both Iowa and New Hampshire where voters are paying most attention to the race. He is not doing well on the stump and is reportedly having trouble raising money. (2) Warren is the front runner, but remains polarizing. She is not picking up most of Biden’s voters. Rather, it is Buttigieg who seems to be gaining both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, we doubt that Democrats really want to put forward a 37 year old mayor from a small city in Indiana with little to no accomplishments to his name. (3) Sanders has bounced back from his heart attack and seems to have support from a loyal base of Socialists equal to roughly 20% of the electorate. (4) Senator Kamala Harris’s support has collapsed and reports suggest her fund raising is similarly weak. (5) we note that Tulsi Gabbard’s support has risen to the 4-5% level, probably due in part to her spat with Clinton over the claim that she was a Russian agent.
The bottom line is that Warren remains the front runner, but her inability to consolidate support despite Biden’s falling numbers, suggests that she is a relatively weak front runner. The one thing she has going for her is that none of the other three leaders (Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg) is well positioned to be a front runner either. Biden is clearly past his prime, Sanders just had a heart attack and is nearly 80, while Buttigieg is an untested, small city mayor. No wonder many centrist Democrats are hoping that a new candidate (and not Hillary Clinton) joins the race to save the day.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 