Speaker Nancy Pelosi and all but two of her Democratic colleagues voted to officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Trump by a vote of 232-196 in the House. The Democratic majority elected not to follow the impeachment procedures that had been adopted in 1972 for Nixon or in 1998 for Clinton. Instead, they opted for a process that will afford President Trump and Republicans fewer procedural rights and allows Representative Schiff to continue much of the investigation out of public eye in the intelligence committee. Notably, the approved procedures only allow Republicans to call witnesses approved by the Democrats and denies Republicans subpoena power. Still, the inquiry is now official and the likelihood that Trump will be impeached by the House almost a certainty.
Putting aside the procedural maneuvering, we wonder what the political calculation is for the Democrats to pursue impeachment at this time. We see several possible explanations:
First, the Democrats could earnestly believe that they will not only succeed in impeaching Trump, but that they will actually be able to convict him in the Senate by a 2/3 vote. We find this possibility extremely remote. Recall that Republicans control 53 senate seats and that 50 already signed onto Lindsey Graham’s resolution condemning the impeachment process (only Senators Romney, Collins and Murkowski did not sign on). Then there are several Democratic Senators who are likely to vote against impeachment. Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) said today that under no circumstances would he vote for Senator Bernie Sanders and might even vote for Trump. Likewise, Senator Doug Jones (D-Alabama) is up for re-election in 2020 and a vote for impeachment would seal his fate. Bottom line: there are somewhere between 51-55 certain Senate votes against impeachment, much less enough votes to convict Trump by the requisite 2/3 margin.
Second, Democrats may believe that impeachment is going to help them in 2020 by rallying their base and cause independents to view Trump as a corrupt politician. Again, we don’t think that Nancy Pelosi really believes this narrative. If she did, she would have pursued impeachment long ago, not waiting until the latest Ukranian controversy. The general public already has a good idea of who Trump is, his strengths and weaknesses well understood. We see much greater downside for Democrats. The impeachment inquiry has unified Republican voters and appears to have little support among independents. Trump’s first 2020 election ad played during game 7 of the World Series is already portraying them as do-nothing Democrats.
Third, Speaker Pelosi may have pursued the impeachment inquiry simply to keep the progressive wing in her party from challenging incumbents in the upcoming 2020 Democratic primaries. We believe that this is the most likely rationale for pursuing impeachment. Pelosi launched the inquiry within days of Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s condemnation of the Democratic leadership for not impeaching Trump. Had Pelosi not backed impeachment, it is likely that she and many of her establishment Democratic colleagues would have faced a primary challenge from the left.
Finally, we think Speaker Pelosi may have realized that the impeachment inquiry might be a way of diverting attention from the upcoming Inspector General report on the FBI’s abuse of FISA warrants and bias during and after the 2016 election as well as the increasingly serious criminal investigation of the CIA and FBI by Attorney Durham. By striking first, Pelosi may be trying to frame the debate in partisan terms that will undermine both the IG Report and Durham investigation.
Whatever the reason, Pelosi and her Democratic colleagues are now committed to impeachment even though they know Trump will not be convicted in the Senate. It is quite a political gamble, but Pelosi undoubtedly decided she had no choice but to roll the dice and hope that the political damage would be limited.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 