Derby, CT is a small town in New Haven County, not too far from New Haven. What makes Derby an interesting town politically is that Democrats hold a clear registration advantage, yet the town has been trending Republican in recent years. The town itself has a population of 12,500. In terms of party registration, there are 2681 Democrats, 1189 Republicans, and 3205 Independents. Thus, Democrats hold a 2:1 ratio over Republicans.
The 2019 mayoral race pits the incumbent Republican mayor Richard Dziekian and his Democratic challenger Brian Coppola. In 2017, Dziekian had upset the existing Democratic mayor Anita Duggato in a surprise victory. Similarly in 2016, President Trump carried Derby by a margin of 51% to 45% over Clinton whereas Obama had carried the 2012 election by a vote of 56% to 44% over Romney. In 2018, Derby voters split their votes favoring incumbents Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) yet backing Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bob Stefanowski over now Governor Lamont.
Given the recent split decisions, we believe that the Derby election will be highly competitive this November and bears watching. As an incumbent, Dziekian is probably a slight favorite, but Coppola is a successful and well-connected local businessman. We will be monitoring closely both the election results and turnout. Derby is precisely the type of district where Trump has tended to outperform historical precedent. If Republicans want to win in New England, they will have to win smaller towns and cities like Derby. Next Tuesday will give us a good indication about the state of the electorate and who has the advantage as we head into 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 