National Observations

We highlight a few of the more interesting stories that emerged from yesterday’s off year elections. The main stream narrative focused on two key events: the Democratic victories in Virginia state elections and the Kentucky Governorship. Democrats should celebrate both of these milestones, but we think a few other stories are equally interesting.

Let’s start by looking more closely at the results out of Kentucky. The incumbent Republican Governor Bevin appears to have lost by approximately 5000 votes to the Democratic candidate Andy Beshear, son of the long-term former Governor. At the same time, we note that Republicans swept the remaining Kentucky leadership roles including the election of a Black Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who won easily with a 15% margin (57% to 41%). In short, outside of the top position, Republicans won easily in Kentucky and will likely to win easily in 2020.

Another interesting vote took place in Tuscon, Arizona. Tuscon voted down a referendum that would have made the city a sanctuary city by a vote of 71% to 29%. This despite the city being overwhelmingly Democratic. The result should give pause to national Democrats running for President who have all embraced dramatic changes to our illegal immigration enforcement. The reality is that immigration is a clear winner for Republicans.

Perhaps even more remarkable was a referendum on affirmative action in public employment and education in the State of Washington. Remarkably, Washington voters defeated the proposal to enact affirmative action by a vote of 52% to 48%. Again, this took place in a state that is reliably Democratic.

So what is the lesson from Tuesday’s elections? First, candidates matter … a stronger Republican candidate in Kentucky would have almost certainly won. Second, immigration is a winning issue for Republicans. Third, Democrats would be wise not to embrace affirmative action or other 70s era policies such as school busing. Even in liberal bastions such as the State of Washington and Tuscon, Arizona, voters care more about peace, prosperity and taxes.