Who has filed for NH Primary?

With all the press tonight that former Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considering entering the Democratic race for Presidential, we decided to check the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s web site to see who has actually registered to run. New Hampshire requires that any candidate file between Wednesday October 30, 2019 and Friday November 15, 2020.

Let’s start with the Republican primary. The first to file was Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente, a perennial candidate who ran as a Democrat in 2016 but is now running again this year as a Republican. President Trump formally filed today Thursday, November 7th. So far, the other better known challengers (Weld, Sanford) have not filed. That has not stopped three other private citizens from filing, but for now it looks fairly certain that Trump will face only token opposition.

So who has filed on the Democratic side? First out of the gate was another unknown private citizen, Mark Stewart Greenstein, who edged Pete Buttigieg to the Secretary of State’s Office. Other mainstream candidates who have filed include Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson, and John Delaney. As of tonight, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Julian Castro have not yet filed for New Hampshire, but are expected to do so soon. We will know soon if Bloomberg is serious. He will have to file in New Hampshire by next Friday, so stay tuned.

How strong would Bloomberg be? He could be an effective candidate in the general election, but we have strong doubts about how well he would do in a Democratic primary. First, he is 77 years old. With Sanders at 78, Biden at 76, and Warren at 70, this is certainly an aging group of candidates. Second, Bloomberg is not going to appeal to the base of the Democratic Party. He supported “stop and frisk” police policies as Mayor in New York, a virtual disqualification for most progressives. Bloomberg is also a self-described fiscal conservative who has historically supported low taxes. Finally, Bloomberg is worth $53 billion, his wealth created by his company whose clients are all Wall Street banks and large asset managers. Remember Occupy Wall Street? Bloomberg is Wall Street. In short, if Bloomberg were to somehow get the Democratic nomination, there would be an open rebellion from the likes of Warren, Sanders and other progressives.

We hope that Bloomberg does get into the race because his presence would make it more interesting. That said, we do not believe that he will be successful in winning the Democratic nomination. Rather, we think Bloomberg’s potential run highlights how concerned traditional Democrats are that Warren or Sanders may get the nomination and lose to Trump again in 2020.