Black Voices for Trump

As the President ramps up his re-election effort, Trump has decided to expand his base into new demographic groups. Perhaps the most visible effort is Trump’s attempt to win a larger share of black voters. Trump actually outperformed Romney among black voters in 2016, winning 8% of black voters. Recently, Trump has taken several steps to reach out to the black community including his support for criminal justice reform, highlighting the improved economic conditions for black Americans including the lowest unemployment rate ever, and his friendship with prominent black Americans such as Kanye West and Herschel Walker. This past week, Trump attended a “Black voices for Trump” event that highlighted his accomplishments. He also had a novel approach to reaching out, going on twitter to offer support for a new #MAGAChallenge. The #MAGAChallenge is a contest to produce the best rap song in support of the President. Trump has promised to invite the winners of the challenge to the White House. While critics mocked the effort, the contest highlighted the President’s support among a younger demographic.

We think the Trump’s campaign efforts make a lot of sense. If Trump were to pick up a few percentage points of black voters, we believe it would help him in key states such as Pennsylvania (Philadelphia) or Michigan (Detroit). We believe there is considerable upside for Trump. First, historically, Republicans have done much better. George W Bush, for example, won 11% of black voters in 2004 against John Kerry and it was not so long ago when Gerald Ford won 17% of black voters. Second, there are many conservative religious black voters who feel culturally alienated from the current Democratic Party. Third, a number of the leading Democratic candidates (notably Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg) do not poll particularly well with black voters. Hence, there is a unique opportunity for Trump to expand his vote.

We note that there also are a number of black Republicans seeking and winning prominent offices. In Kentucky, Daniel Cameron became the first black attorney general in the history of the state last week. Cameron, at age 33, is a rising star in the Republican party. He is a former Louisville football player and was counsel for Senator Mitch McConnell. Another notable black Republican candidate is John James, a black Republican who is seeking to unseat Sen. Gary Peter (D-MI) next year. Polls show a very close race. James is campaigning on a slogan of “Faith. Family. Service.” Michigan also happens to be a pivotal 2020 state for Trump. A strong run by James could lift more black Michigan voters for Trump. In short, we see Trump’s outreach to black Americans as a central component of his re-election efforts.