After three days of public hearings, the Impeachment Inquiry is turning into a debacle for House Democrats. Having caved to Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s call to launch impeachment proceedings, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has now put the Democratic majority in the House in jeopardy. The signs that the impeachment inquiry is a flop are becoming clear:
First, opinion polls show that support for the impeachment is falling. While support among Democrats remains strong for impeachment, support among Independents has fallen since the start of the public hearings. The liberal leaning 538 political website keeps an average of recent polls on the subject which shows that support for impeachment has fallen among Independents has fallen from a peak of 47.5% to 43.6%. More importantly, the three most recent polls have support for impeachment falling to 39% or 40% depending on the survey.
Second, no one is paying attention. Despite constant coverage on cable television, the number of people watching is declining by the day. More people watch an average NFL football game than the impeachment proceedings.
Third, the President’s ratings remain very stable. The Real Clear Politics average of Trump support shows a slight increase in his approval to 44%, essentially the same level of support that Trump has had for almost his entire Presidency.
Fourth, Trump and the Republican Party have seen a spike in political contributions for his re-election efforts since the start of the impeachment. In contrast, there has been no jump in fund raising efforts for Democrats. According to Politico, many Democrats are privately concerned about how much money the Trump campaign has raised.
Fifth, Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s report on FBI spying on the Trump campaign is set to be released imminently. The report is believed to show wide spread abuse at the FBI (and possibly the CIA) and will highlight the unprecedented steps that the Obama Department of Justice and CIA took to spy on and leak unsubstantiated negative stories on Trump and his campaign. The report will further undermine public support for impeachment.
In short, the Impeachment inquiry is not changing anyone’s minds and may actually be undermining Democratic support and antagonizing Independents. To quote Democratic Representative Van Drew (D-NJ), “We’ve spent millions of Dollars, in my opinion, tons of money, tons of time, tons of hurt, fracturing the Nation apart. I haven’t seen this to be a good thing.” Hardly the type of quote that Democrats want to hear, even if it is from one of their more conservative members.
We still believe that its probable that a majority of the House will vote to impeach the President, but that he will be quickly found not guilty in the Senate. According to PredictIt, support for impeachment has declined from a 45% probability on November 13 to a recent low of 38% today. We would put the likelihood of impeachment by the House as much higher, but agree that the risk of a conviction in the Senate is extremely remote. Nothing of substance will have been accomplished. Democrats would be wise to have a positive agenda to run on, rather than just a failed impeachment effort.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 