On Friday evening, prominent news organizations are reporting that the multi-billionaire Michael Bloomberg is preparing a massive TV blitz to announce his run for President, starting in early December, with an initial TV buy of $33 million over a two week period. Bloomberg, who is estimated to be worth $54 billion, could obviously spend a lot more. We have a few observations.
First, Bloomberg’s entrance into the race is certainly not a vote of confidence for the existing candidates. Bloomberg is understandably concerned by the views of the progressive / socialist candidates Sanders and Warren. Nor is he impressed by Joe Biden (whose daily gaffes are becoming concerning for Democratic insiders) or the latest front runner Pete Buttigieg (a 37 year old mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a city less than 1/85th the size of New York City, who managed to win in 2015 with 8,515 votes … yes, that’s fewer votes than won by Bridgeport CT Mayor Joe Ganim or Greenwich CT First Selectman Fred Camillo in 2019). To sum it up, Bloomberg would not be entering the race this late in the process unless he believed that the existing candidates were very weak.
Two, Bloomberg currently has very little national support. The latest RealClearPolitics average of polls indicates his national support is 2.3% percent, less than Andrew Yang but slightly ahead of Tulsi Gabbard. Of course, this is before Bloomberg starts running his barrage of TV ads.
Third, Bloomberg will not be on the New Hampshire ballot, having missed the filing deadline of November 15. Nor will he compete in the Iowa caucuses. He is targeting the Southern Super Tuesday primaries on March 3rd, having filed to appear on the Democratic Primary in Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas. His strategy seems to be inundate the airwaves with ads as the Democratic primary goes national following the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina campaigns. The DNC modified the 2020 primary calendar, creating more clusters of states, starting with Super Tuesday with 12 states including California and Texas. Bloomberg undoubtedly feels that his money edge will allow him to campaign effectively while other campaigns are running out of money.
Fourth, if Bloomberg goes all in, it could elongate the Democratic campaign and has the potential to increase the likelihood of a brokered convention. Typically, candidates drop out because donors stop funding the campaign. In contrast, Bloomberg is unconstrained. He could easily contest the election all the way through the convention.
Fifth, the progressive wing of the party will never accept Bloomberg. Bloomberg was the champion of ‘stop and frisk” policing which just a few years ago he defended saying that it had made New York the “safest big city in America.” Last week, Bloomberg apologized for the policy explaining that he had been “wrong” on stop and frisk. Needless to say, the left is not buying Bloomberg’s sudden U-turn. Sanders and Warren will never support Bloomberg. In the unlikely chance that Bloomberg wins the Democratic nomination, there will be open civil war between the left and more moderate wings of the Democratic party.
In summary, a Bloomberg candidacy is not constructive for the Democratic Party. If Bloomberg is serious and decides to go all-in, the Democratic primary campaign is likely to be prolonged, could splinter the party, and result in a much more expensive and costly effort. This is good news for President Trump.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 