While the Democratic Presidential primaries are sure to garner most of the attention over the next several months, we want to call attention to several interesting US Senate races in 2020 in New England. Four incumbent senators are running for re-election: Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Jack Reed (D-RI), and Ed Markey (D-MA). Republicans hold a narrow majority in the Senate currently with 53 seats, but are defending 23 seats to just 12 for Democrats. Three of the Republican held Senate seats are in states that Trump lost in 2016. The balance of the Senate will be critical for the outcome of policy regardless of whether Trump is re-elected or not.
Perhaps the most interesting race in New England will be in Maine where Senator Collins will be seeking re-election in a state that is generally Democratic. Collins is a moderate Republican who has built an image as a fiscal conservative, social liberal. First elected to the Senate in 1996, she easily won a fourth term in 2014 with 68% of the vote. However, ever since Collins voted to confirm Justice Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, she has been targeted by pro-abortion activists who have raised a massive war chest of nearly $5 million to seek her ouster. Collins herself is pro-abortion and previously had been supported by social liberals. It is not expected that Collins will face opposition from within the Republican party, but there is likely to be a hotly contested Democratic primary. Already, two leading Democratic opponents have entered the race: Sara Gideon (Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives) and Betsy Sweet (a prominent pro-abortion activist). Other candidates that could enter the race are Janet Mills, current Democratic Governor, and Cecile Roberts, former President of Planned Parenthood. In a normal election year, we believe Collins would win re-election, but the hyper charged political environment could make her vulnerable in 2020. The non partisan Cook Report has Collins as a “toss up” for 2020. Democrats have targeted her seat as a key potential pick up for 2020.
Another fascinating race to watch will be the New Hampshire’s senate race. Senator Jeanne Shaheen was re-elected in 2014 over former Senator Scott Brown by a 51% to 48% margin. Shaheen as well as New Hampshire have become more Democratic over time. Once considered a conservative Democrat, Shaheen today is indistinguishable politically from most of her Democratic Senate peers, having been endorsed by Emily’s List and other liberal policy groups. Shaheen is not expected to face a primary challenge. On the Republican side, so far three relatively obscure opponents have indicated that they are running, the most well known being Bill O’Brien, a former New Hampshire State Representative. Republicans are hoping that either former senator Kelly Ayotte (who lost her re-election bid by less than 1% in 2016) or Scott Brown (formerly Senator from Massachusetts who lost to Shaheen in 2014) will run. Trump’s former campaign advisor Corey Lowendowski is also considering a run. The Cook Report has the race as a Democratic Hold in 2020, but we believe that if a strong Republican candidate were to run, he or she could benefit from popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu who is seeking re-election as well as Trump at the top of the ticket.
In Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Democrats are heavily favored to hold both seats. That said, in Massachusetts there could be some interesting developments. Representative Joe Kennedy, currently representing the 4th district and grandson of Robert Kennedy (grand nephew of John F. Kennedy) has announced that he will challenge incumbent Senator Ed Markey. A consummate liberal who has been endorsed by Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Markey will have his work cut out to defeat the Kennedy family in Massachusetts. While the Democratic primary winner will be the heavy favorite, the primary bears watching as a tough primary fight could open the door for a Republican upset. That said, so far the only Republican to announce a run is Shiva Ayyadurai, a MIT PhD graduate who previously ran as an independent in 2018 against Senator Warren and garnered 3% of the vote. Republicans will need a stronger candidate if they want a chance of picking this seat up. In Rhode Island, Jack Reed is a savvy politician who is seeking a fifth term in the Senate having won his most recent election with over 70% of the vote. No Republicans have yet to announce they will challenge Reed.
We look forward to covering all four races in 2020 and believe that the races in Maine and New Hampshire could have significant political ramifications for the country.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 