With less than 60 days until the Iowa Caucus, we thought we would look back at history to see if we can get some insights into this year’s contest.
In 2016, 2 months before the caucus, Hillary Clinton held a large lead in the national polls while Donald Trump was leading the Republican field. On caucus day, Hillary finished in a virtual tie with Bernie Sanders, with Hillary winning by less 1 percent in what was widely viewed as a surprisingly weak showing. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz defeated Trump with backing from Evangelical voters. However, Trump finished second and ended up getting a boost when Ben Carson pulled out after the Iowa competition and endorsed Trump in a move that changed the course of the race. However, more remarkable is what occurred in 2012 and 2008.
In 2012, with 2 months to go, Herman Cain was leading with 26% of the national polls, ahead of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. On the day of the Caucus, Rick Santorum ended up winning Iowa with Romney second and Ron Paul third. 60 days before Santorum had less than 2% in the national polls! In 2008, Hillary Clinton was polling at 43% nationally, well ahead of Barack Obama (22%) and Jon Edwards (12%). At caucus time, Obama won with 34%, Edwards finished second, and Clinton fell to third, signaling her challenge of connecting with voters. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani was leading the national polls at 29% with Fred Thompson in second at 16% and John McCain in third with 14%. Of course, on caucus day, it was Mike Huckabee, former Governor from Arkansas, who ended up winning. As for Rudy, he won only 3% of the Caucus votes and would drop out a few weeks later after a disappointing finish in New Hampshire.
We have two key takeaways. First, the national polls 60 days in advance of the Iowa Caucus are a poor indicator of who will win. The reality is that many voters are still learning about the candidates and many will change their mind in the closing days of the contest. Second, the ultimate winner of both the Republican and Democratic nomination usually finishes in the top 3 in the Iowa Caucus. In 2016, Clinton came in first, Trump in second. In 2012, Romney finished in second. In 2008, Obama finished first and McCain in third. In 2004, Kerry finished first. In 2000, both Gore and Bush finished first. Thus, since 2000, every winner of the Republican or Democratic nomination has finished in the top 3 of their respective Iowa Caucus with most coming in first.
So where does it say about 2020? First, Biden’s lead in the national polls does not mean that he will finish well in Iowa. In fact, we think that the local polls are probably a better indicator of how Biden is going to do and right now they have him in fourth place. We don’t think his recent “No Malarkey” tour has gone well, having been overshadowed by impeachment and his son’s dealings in Ukraine. Second, one of the top 3 finishers in Iowa will likely be the Democratic nominee. We doubt that Bloomberg’s strategy of waiting until Super Tuesday will pay off. While we admit that Bloomberg has unique advantages due to his immense wealth, we think that he is likely to find it difficult to overcome the front runners who have competed in Iowa and New Hampshire. Right now, that means the Democratic nominee will likely be one of the top four candidates: Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders or Warren. Look for one of these candidates to win Iowa and gain momentum as they head to New Hampshire.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 