UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party scored a resounding victory in this week’s elections, setting the stage for Brexit to take place in 2020. The Conservatives won 364 seats in Parliament out of 650, an increase of almost 50 seats. While the UK election was dominated by the Brexit decision, the Conservatives also were helped by facing a relatively weak Labor Party candidate, the overtly socialist and Labor party leader Jeremy Corbynn.
The resounding victory by Johnson has raised concerns about the 2020 field of Democratic candidates. Democrats recall that the Brexit vote in 2016 foreshadowed Trump’s victory as blue collar voters turned away from globalist policies in both countries. Now, they see a parallel between leadership of the Labor Party in the UK and the Democratic Party in the US. The Labor Party moved to the left behind an unabashed socialist, just as Democrats may nominate avowed socialist Bernie Sanders or progressive champion Elizabeth Warren. Democrat leaders now fear that nominating Sanders or Warren would likely pave the way for Trump’s re-election.
The UK political narrative is most beneficial for former Vice President Joe Biden. While Biden has underwhelmed on the campaign trail and struggled to raise money, he remains at the top of the national polls and appears to fare better than others would against Trump in most general election polling. Biden’s primary path to the nomination is to convince Democrats that he gives them the best chance of winning in November.
Yet, while the polls continue to show Biden as faring better than other candidates in a general election, some Democratic insiders continue to question whether Biden is really as strong as polls suggest. His debate performances have reinforced an image of Biden as gaffe prone and left some questioning whether he is too old to be President. To these observers, Biden reminds them of Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, and possibly Mitt Romney. Also, while Biden’s overall favorable ratings are higher in polling than Trump’s, Trump leads Biden by a wide margin in voters who view either candidate as “very favorable” (30% to 19%). This enthusiasm gap has some Democrats concerned that turnout for Biden in a general election could be middling, while Trump’s loyal band of ardent supporters will show up in mass on election day.
In short, the UK election has left Democrats in a quandary. Voters recognize that Sanders and Warren are likely too far left to beat Trump. At the same time, they have significant concerns about Biden. The result is a Democratic establishment unnerved by the UK election and worrying over the possibility of Trump’s re-election in 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 