The latest Democratic debate was a marked improvement from prior debates because of the smaller number of candidates on the stage. Having 7 candidates on the stage allowed each candidate (even Andrew Yang) to get plenty of speaking time and we found it to be a reasonably interesting debate. We also give credit to the moderators who did a nice job of allowing candidates to speak and give some back and forth.
We don’t think that anyone had a really bad night, but we do think that Sanders, Biden, Warren and Klobuchar probably fared better than Buttigieg. Here’s how we rated the evening:
First, we think that the progressives Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are setting the agenda for the Democratic primary. Whether it’s immigration, medicare for all, higher taxes, opposition to fossil fuels, or reparations for black Americans, it is Sanders and Warren who push the agenda. Tonight’s debate was no different. Sanders loves the word “Revolution” and tonight said that we need a “revolution” in education as well as a “political revolution.” He also pledged to raise taxes on Wall Street and the wealthy. Buoyed by rising poll numbers, Sanders seemed confident, took on Joe Biden about healthcare, and has positioned himself as the unapologetic progressive.
Second, Elizabeth Warren also had a strong night. Tonight, she managed to appear authentic about her support for the wealth tax, medicare for all, and campaign finance reform, while also coming across as funny at times. Warren was also effective attacking Buttigieg over having a fund raiser with billionaires in an upscale wine cave in California. We felt that Warren had the better of the exchange.
Third, Joe Biden had a comparatively good night, particularly compared to previous debates. Biden did not have any embarrassing gaffes which is certainly a welcome change for his campaign. We thought that he responded well to questions about his age and Afghanistan and for a national front runner took fairly few attacks. Biden continues to position himself as slightly more moderate than peers and wraps himself in President Obama’s legacy. Tonight, we thought it worked fairly well and should keep him at the front of the national polls.
Fourth, Amy Klobuchar was outspoken and gathered considerable speaking time. She highlighted her ability to win in Midwestern states, contrasting her success with that of Mayor Pete Buttigieg. We thought her take down of Buttigieg on experience was also effective. We would not be surprised for her to see some positive momentum coming out of this debate.
Fifth, Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer spoke more than in prior debates, one continues to wonder about why they are on the debate stage. While they are sometimes entertaining (particularly Yang), they really have no path to the White House and would probably be better to join those in attendance watching.
Finally, we thought that Pete Buttigieg fared the worst. Buttigieg took incoming attacks from multiple other candidates including Biden, Warren and Klobuchar. While his responses were not catastrophic, Buttigieg never effectively responded to Klobuchar’s attack on his lack of experience. We expect to see his numbers start to move down as his support wanes.
So how do we see the race now? In our mind, the race appears to be one between the safe choice (Biden) v. one of the progressive candidates (Sanders or Warren). We continue to believe that the progressive wing is likely to come out on top!
NewEnglandPolitics.com 