Multiple political polls suggest that President Trump has seen a small but noticeable increase in his approval ratings. According to RCP avg. of polls, Trump’s approval rating has risen to 44.5%, his highest rating level in several months and approximately 3% higher than a month ago. By all accounts, it appears that that the Impeachment efforts which led to the formal impeachment of Trump by a majority in the House of Representatives on Thursday has boomeranged on the Democrats. Pelosi rushed forward with the impeachment vote and then inexcusably failed to immediately deliver the articles of impeachment to the Senate, knowing that the impeachment efforts will be rejected by a majority in the Senate. While we assume that Pelosi will ultimately deliver the articles, the delay smacks of the type of partisan politics that turns off independent voters. In short, the impeachment efforts have undermined the Democrats and provided a much needed boost to the President.
Another factor that is helping Trump is the economy. The November jobs report indicated that 266,000 jobs were created with an unemployment rate of 3.5%. These are incredibly strong numbers for this late in the economic cycle and voters seem to be giving the President credit. Adding to the sense of momentum is passage of the USMCA trade bill replacing NAFTA and a massive new budget that will fund the government through next year. The latter budget highlights that Washington has reached a bipartisan agreement to end any attempt at fiscal austerity or address the structural budget deficit and its long term implications.
The combination of the Nancy Pelosi’s foot fault on impeachment and the roaring economy has many conservatives suddenly projecting that Trump will be re-elected in a landslide. We don’t agree. While the recent trend is in Trump’s favor, we highlight that the country remains closely divided. Most general election polls (including polls by CNN and Emerson this week) give Democrats, including Biden, Warren and Sanders, a slim lead over Trump. Moreover, Democrats are unlikely to repeat the campaign blunders of the Clinton campaign. We should remember that Hillary Clinton was a particularly weak candidate who was so overconfident that she failed to campaign in key states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. The reality is that 2020 will most likely be quite similar to 2016 with the election likely hinging on a handful of battleground states including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump knows this and it is why he staged a rally in Battle Creek Michigan while the House was busy impeaching him in Washington last week. Still, Trump is uniquely polarizing and has already turned a sizeable portion of the electorate against him. Given the strength of the economy, Trump should be ahead in polls by a large margin. We believe he remains vulnerable and should the Democrats nominate an effective nominee, the Democrats, rather than Trump, will be favored to win in 2020.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 