There is about five weeks to go until Iowa kicks off the 2020 Presidential nomination process with the first caucus of the year. The polls continue to show a four way race between Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders and Warren. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Buttigieg at 22%, Sanders at 20%, Biden at 19% and Warren at 16%. The rest of the field is way behind with Klobuchar next at 6%. Buttigieg has now maintained his lead in three of the most recent four polls. That said, we don’t think he is the favorite to win because in the Iowa caucuses the ground game matters a lot. You need voters who are really committed to show up at a specific time and stay for at least an hour. That is not your typical voter, it is someone who is really committed.
So who is the favorite? If you believe the betting markets, it is Bernie Sanders. Predict It now has Sanders as the favorite with a 40% chance of winning, followed by Buttigieg at 28%, Biden at 19% and Warren at 11%. We had previously believed that Warren would consolidate the progressive wing, capitalizing on Sanders’ heart attack and the desire to have a female president. Instead, it appears that Sanders is rejuvenated and now is leading the progressive lane. Warren has been hurt by some false statements and failure to explain how she would pay for certain pledges. Sanders has benefitted from the endorsement by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and seems to be recreating his core coalition of older progressives and radical young people.
The New York Times has a lead article today entitled “Why Bernie Sanders is Tough to Beat.” The article highlights one of Sanders’ key advantages: he ran four years ago and has an existing base of loyal followers who are ready to try again. Running an effective presidential campaign is more challenging than generally understood. The rest of the field (Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg) with the exception of Biden has never done this before … and Biden’s previous campaigns for President have gone poorly. In contrast, Sanders competed all the way up to the national convention and came very close to defeating Hillary Clinton. In Iowa, he probably only needs to get 80% of his supporters from 2016 and he will win because this year’s caucus is likely to be much more divided. Critics say that nominating Sanders will mean that Trump wins re-election, but polls suggest that Sanders is competitive with Trump and stronger than Buttigieg. Moreover, the intensity of his support rivals that of Trump’s. Intensity will certainly matter in Iowa. According to the Sanders’ campaign, they already have more commitments to attend this year’s caucuses than in 2016. If true, Sanders will be tough to beat five weeks from now in Iowa.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 