Is Sanders the new front runner?

While Joe Biden remains ahead in the national polls, it is Bernie Sanders who leads in terms of money raised. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Sanders raised $34.5 million, significantly ahead of his closest rivals. Sanders total was particularly impressive because he eschews larger donations from businesses and wealthier donors. Pete Buttigieg placed second with $24.7 million while Biden took third with $22.7 million. Elizabeth Warren raised $21 million, followed by Andrew Yang with $16.5 million and Amy Klobuchar at $11 million.

The money haul demonstrates the intensity of support that Sanders enjoys. Another indication of Sanders support is seen on Twitter. Sanders leads among number of Twitter followers with 10.1 million followers. Corey Booker is in second with 4.4 million followers, then Biden with 4.0 million followers, Warren with 3.5 million, Bloomberg with 2.4 million, Buttigieg with 1.5 million, and Yang with 1.1 million.

While Sanders is on top of the Democratic field, he still trails Trump by a wide margin in terms of fund raising and twitter followers. Trump raised 46 million in the fourth quarter, despite not facing any primary opposition. Moreover, on twitter, Trump has 68 million subscribers, significantly more than all the Democratic candidates combined.

The fund raising numbers highlight that the race has narrowed considerably. Today, we saw Julian Castro bow out, just as Kamala Harris had a few weeks ago, as the money simply was not there for either to continue their campaigns. The race is now largely a four way race between Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg and Warren. Yang has enough money to hang around, but we don’t think he is a viable candidate. Bloomberg has the money, but lacks support among the Democratic primary voters. We continue to doubt that he will be influential in the race. Klobuchar is hoping for a breakthrough in Iowa, but we predict she will fall outside of the top four. National opinion polls suggest that Biden has the lead, but we think that much of his support is soft. To us, the money haul and number of twitter followers suggest that it is Sanders who should be considered the Democratic front runner.