Last week, we shared our views on who we thought is most likely to win the Democratic Presidential nomination. Tonight, we focus on how others see or assess the race.
Let’s start with Nate Silver’s website 538. 538 is among the most highly respected, liberal leaning political sites on the web. Silver uses a quantitative approach that runs computer simulations based on polling and historical data to predict likely scenarios. His analysis suggests that Joe Biden is the favorite with 2/5 chance (40%) followed by Bernie Sanders at 22%. He suggests that a brokered convention where no one wins 50% of the original delegates is the third most likely outcome with a 14% likelihood followed by Warren (12%), Buttigieg (10%) and all others at 2%.
Silver’s analysis is similar to Predict It which is online political wagering site. Biden is again viewed as the favorite at 42% followed by Sanders (29%), Warren (11%), Bloomberg (10%) and Buttigieg at 10%.
Rolling Stone Magazine has come out with rankings in terms of the likely nominee. The Magazine sees the likelihood in the following order: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Yang and Klobuchar (in that order).
Finally, we note that Indivisible (the progressive non-profit) came out with a scorecard ranking the Democratic candidates. The final scorecard was Warren, Sanders, Booker, Steyer, Buttigieg, Biden, and Klobuchar (in that order).
We remain skeptical that Biden is truly the favorite, but it seems that most political prognosticators view Biden as the favorite, followed closely by Sanders.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 