We highlight 5 interesting stories and factoids from the campaign trail.
First, we start with the candidates that have qualified for the upcoming Democratic debate on Tuesday night in Des Moines. The six candidates that will be on stage are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer. That means that Andrew Yang failed to qualify for the first time as did others such as Booker, Gabbard, Delaney, Patrick and Bloomberg. In order to qualify, candidates needed to have 5% in four early state approved polls or 7% in two early state approved polls and 225,000 unique donors with 1,000 or more in 20 states. Steyer was the last to qualify due to his second place showing in South Carolina, a state that he has deluged with TV ads. We will be watching CNN this Tuesday at 9PM EST and bring you a recap.
Second, spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson called it quits in her long-shot campaign to win the nomination. Williamson had generated considerable media attention in the second Democratic debate when she referenced a “dark psychic force” in the nation. She left the campaign with grace and a more positive message saying on twitter that “love will prevail.” Interestingly, she pledged to back “whichever [candidate] … wins the nomination … I will be there with all my energy and in full support.” We think her departure from the race is probably best for Sanders, Warren and Yang. Her supporters tended to favor less traditional candidates which we think bodes well for the more progressive candidates.
Third, the Warren campaign has been making a new argument: that she is more electable than the other candidates. It’s a tough argument to make based on the polls, which actually show that both Biden and Sanders generally do better against Trump than she does. Rather, Warren is arguing that she can unify the Democratic Party as she is acceptable to both wings of the Party, both the Sanders voters and the Biden voters. Still, we think it’s a smart argument to make. Warren can also point to the recent endorsement by Julian Castro to show that others are rallying to her campaign. We continue to believe that Warren could surprise on the upside in Iowa and would not be surprised if she finishes 1 or 2 in Iowa (most likely 2 behind Sanders).
Fourth, The Washington Post came out with an interesting poll nationally of solely black voters. The results show that Biden continues to have a commanding lead at 48% followed by Sanders (20%), Warren (9%), Bloomberg (4%) and Booker (4%). Biden’s standing in the black community remains his best hope to win the nomination. Unfortunately for him, neither Iowa nor New Hampshire has a sizable black community. The polling results are also problematic for Mayor Buttigieg, who polled at 2%. Given the outsized importance of black voters for the Democratic Party, it is almost inconceivable that Buttigieg could win the nomination with such little support.
Finally, the Des Moines Register came out with their latest Iowa poll which showed for the first time that Bernie Sanders has gained the lead with 20% of the vote. Warren seems to have recovered a bit in second at 17%, Buttigieg has slipped to 16% and Biden is hanging on at 15%. It certainly seems that this is a four way race with Bloomberg trying to buy his way into the top tier list of candidates.
For now, we remain of the view that Sanders (rather than Biden) is the favorite to win Iowa and to go on and win the nomination. That said, we think that Biden and Warren are the only two other candidates that have a realistic chance of winning.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 