Every day now seems to bring significant new developments.
First, Senator Cory Booker dropped out of the Democratic race. Booker was polling at about 2% of the electorate and was having trouble raising money. Still, Booker leaves the race with his reputation intact and could easily be considered as a vice presidential nominee. We thought he was actually one of the most articulate candidates in the various Democratic debates. We think his departure probably favors Biden slightly over the other remaining candidates.
Second, on the eve of the last Democratic debate before the Iowa Caucus, there suddenly is an emerging rift between the progressives Warren and Sanders. Warren went after Sanders because his staffers were noting that Warren appeals primarily to college educated voters, whereas Bernie does better with non-college educated, blue collar voters. Warren surrogates then started to spread a rumor that Sanders said that a woman could not beat Trump. Sanders denied that he ever said this.
Third, a new Monmouth poll of Iowa shows Biden in the lead with 24% followed by Sanders (18%), Buttigieg (17%) and Warren (15%). A day earlier the latest Des Moines Register poll had Sanders in the lead and Biden in fourth place.
The race remains fluid and polling suggests that any one of the top four could still win Iowa. Our bet is still on Bernie. He came very close in 2016 against Clinton and we believe he has the momentum. That said, many voters will be turning in to tomorrow’s debate. We will be watching and will give you our key takeaways.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 