There is an interesting special election coming up on January 21st in Greenwich, CT. Long-time CT state legislature Fred Camillo was elected in November as the new First Selectman of Greenwich. Accordingly, Camillo vacated his position as State Representative. The special election race to replace Camillo pits Democratic Cheryl Trepp Moss versus Republican Harry Arora.
On the surface, the race appears to be a relatively safe Republican district. However, we think it actually is going to be a very close election that could easily go Democratic. Why do we consider the election to be a toss-up?
First, the Democratic candidate, Cheryl Trepp Moss, grew up in Milbrook (part of the 151st), went to Greenwich High where she swam on the swimming team, and has raised her three children in Greenwich. She is an existing RTM member and has deep Greenwich roots. In contrast, Arora is an immigrant and successful businessman who worked at hedge fund Amaranth Advisors before setting up his own investment firm. Arora’s personal story of an immigrant who came to this country with nothing and has lived the American dream is very inspiring, but he simply does not have the deep local connections that Moss has. Moss’ background is quite similar to Camillo, who also grew up in Greenwich, went to Greenwich High and has lived locally for most of his adult life.
Second, the 151st district is not the Republican bastion that it once was. In 2018, Arora ran against Jim Himes as the Republican nominee for the 4th Congressional District at that same time that Camillo was running to retain his seat against Democrat Laura Kostin. The 151st state representative seat is comprised of parts of eight local RTM districts: 1A (South Center Greenwich), 5A Riverside), 6A (Old Greenwich), 7A (North Center Greenwich), 8 (Cos Cob), 10A (North West), 11 (North East) and 12 (Havemeyer). In the districts that comprise the 151st, Himes led Arora by a 54% to 46% margin at the same time that Camillo was defeating Kostin by a 57% to 43% margin. While Himes is an incumbent and stronger opponent than Kostin, it is notable that Aroro ran well behind Camillo by significant margins in the same election year.
Third, special elections are notable for their low turnout. This special election is likely to be particularly low given that it is held in the middle of winter at a time when very few voters are likely to be paying attention to politics. The 151st seat is also fractured geographically. Of the 8 RTM districts comprising the seat, only one (Cos Cob) is entirely located within the 151st. Some of the fractional portions of the districts are very small. For example, in 2018, only 14 voters cast ballots in RTM district 10A. Many voters are probably not sure whether they even live within the 151st. Countering the low turnout potential is the large number of Arora and Moss signs that have been placed all over Greenwich. Still, we predict that turnout will likely be low, probably less than 20%.
In short, this special election will be all about turnout. The key will be to watch the Cos Cob and Havemeyer districts where the majority of the voters are independents and have a history of splitting their tickets. Camillo always ran up the margin in both Cos Cob and Havemeyer where he has lived his whole adult life. Arora will need to carry both of these districts while doing well in North Center (7A) and North East (11) if Republicans want to hold this seat. Republicans swept the November Greenwich elections, but without the local candidate Camillo at the top of the ticket, we see this as a much more challenging election for Republicans. We will bring you the results a week from now.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 