Democrats had hoped to score a victory in the special election for CT’s 151st House of Representative seat, but businessman Harry Arora and the Greenwich Republican party scored a solid 54% to 46% win to hold on to an important seat. In the run up to the election, Democrats — emboldened by Alex Bernstein’s surprise win in the Greenwich State Senate race over incumbent Scott Frantz in 2018 — had stated on twitter that “This is another 100% flippable, suburban, trending-blue GOP-held seat.” It was not to be.
Turnout was 28.5% according to the Greenwich Registrar of voters which was well below a typical Presidential or local election, but still better than we see in many special election races. The 151st district leans Republican, comprised of 38% Republicans, 37% Independents, and 26% Democrats. Democrats, however, had seen significant gains in recent years and had carried the district in many recent elections including Jim Himes’ win against Arora in 2018’s congressional race and the 2016 Presidential election. Additionally, Democrats ran a well known local candidate, Cheryl Trepp Moss, who grew up in town, graduated from Greenwich High and had been endorsed by many prominent Democratic politicians. With incumbent Fred Camillo having become First Selectman of Greenwich in November, the seat seemed like a toss up.
Arora was able to win by carrying traditional Republican strongholds of district 11 (Northeast Greenwich) and 12 (Havemeyer) as well as a slim win in district 8 (Cos Cob). Arora was not nearly as well known locally as Camillo (who grew up in Greenwich and would always run up huge vote tallies in Cos Cob) and did not come close to Camillo’s historic margins (57% in 2018 and 60% in 2016). Still, his approximately 380 vote margin win was consistent with the expected result based solely on party registration. Our estimate is that based solely on party registration and assuming Independents split 50-50, one would have expected the Republican candidate to win by approximately 475 votes.
There are a few areas that should concern Republicans. For example, in Districts 7 (North Center) and 8 (Cos Cob), the vote was much closer than one would have expected based on party affiliation. However, we believe that overall this is a solid performance for Republicans, particularly given the relative inexperience of newcomer Arora. We note that Republicans won the absentee ballot vote by a solid 79 votes which suggests a strong effort by the Republican get-out the vote effort. Arora’s message of lowering taxes and opposition to tolls seemed to resonate with voters and gives hope to Republicans that they could rebound in 2020 throughout the state.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 