We highlighted yesterday that early voting has already started in the State of Minnesota for the Presidential Primary on March 3rd. We believe that the early voting favors the better organized campaigns that can use get out the vote efforts to ensure their supporters get to the polls.
Equally interesting is that anyone can vote in Minnesota. There is also same day online voter registration in Minnesota and no party registration. Accordingly, any adult in Minnesota can show up (including Democratic, Republican or Independent voters) and cast a vote in the Democratic primary in Minnesota. So who is actually showing up? We don’t have any way of really knowing, but Twitter certainly has some views. According to one Minnesota voter, “I’m not supposed to say this, but I can tell you the enthusiasm in Minnesota is for Warren and Bernie in the democratic Primary. I only saw Warren and Bernie people waiting to vote early last Friday in the Primary.”
Minnesota is a bit of an outlier when it comes to voting. Several of the early states are so-called “closed” or “modified” voter eligibility states. In a closed state, only voters who are registered in the party holding the primary or caucus can vote. For example, in Iowa, only registered Democrats can participate in the Iowa Caucus. In the New Hampshire primary, both registered voters and independents can participate in the Democratic Primary. After New Hampshire, we go to Nevada where the caucus is closed to non-Democrats and then on to South Carolina where it is an open primary. On Super Tuesday, there will be 15 separate primaries or caucuses, including several open, modified and closed parties.
We believe that open primaries are likely to favor candidates such as Sanders, Yang and Gabbard who may appeal more to independent or less traditional voters. There is also the possibility of strategic crossover voters (ie. Republicans) who may vote for the Democratic candidate that they view as weakest. On the other hand, some independents may be less partisan and favor Biden to the more progressive choices. Bottom line: winning candidates will need to optimize the vote by understanding the rules in every state and maximize the likelihood of winning
NewEnglandPolitics.com 