Most mainstream political prognosticators believe that former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. According to Nate Silver at 538, Biden currently has a 41% chance to win the nomination, well above second place Bernie Sanders (23%). Another polling model by JHK Forecasts has Biden’s chances of winning the nomination at 53%. Finally, Slate Magazine is out with a glowing article today entitled “How Joe Biden will float to Victory.” We don’t agree at all. Here’s why.
Most of these predictions are based on national and state polls that show Biden as the front runner. Indeed, four of the five most recent national polls all taken in the last two days (Emerson, Economist, Monmouth, and Morning Consult) have Biden in the lead. However, we believe that these polls significantly overstate Biden’s likeliness of winning. The core issue for Biden is that he has a significant enthusiasm gap when compared to other tier 1 candidates running for the Democratic nomination. Here are four signs of the enthusiasm gap:
1. Twitter – Biden was the sitting Vice President. He should have many more followers than his peers, but he doesn’t. Biden has 4.1 million followers whereas Sanders has 10.4 million followers and Warren has 3.6 million followers. However, it’s not just the number of followers. Check out the Twitter activity of the Sanders, Warren or Yang supporters v. the Biden team. There is simply no comparison.
2. Donors – According to OpenSecrets.org, Biden has raised $36.7 million so far during this campaign. In contrast, Sanders and Warren have raised $73.8 and $60.1 million. Even Pete Buttigieg, a mayor of a small mid-Western city, has raised $50.9 million. The numbers are even more alarming for Biden when one realizes that most of Biden’s money comes from larger donators, many of whom may have maxed out their donations, whereas most of the Warren and Sanders supporters are small campaign donors.
3. Campaign rallies – Biden’s campaign rallies rarely draw more than a few hundred attendees. Compare that to the Sanders events that can often draw several thousand attendees. In Iowa, Biden had a rally in the town of Council Bluff and were pleased that 500 people showed up. The following week, Warren had a rally in the same location. Over 1000 people turned out to hear Warren. 538 says not to read to much into rally sizes, but in a caucus state, the ability to get voters out is critical.
4. State polls v. National polls – Biden is doing better in national polls than in early state polls. We think this reflects his superior name recognition in states that come later in the nominating process. In early states, however, voters have been paying more attention to the candidates and Biden does not show well up close. Moreover, when polls ask how committed voters are to Biden, almost half of the voters indicate that they may change their mind. Sanders and Warren supporters are much more committed.
Our views on Biden’s enthusiasm gap are also confirmed by history. In 2008, Biden campaigned for the presidency in the Iowa Caucuses and underperformed expectations finishing in fifth with less than 1% of the voting, compared to 4% in the final Des Moines Register poll. In contrast, Sanders has generally outperformed polling. In 2016, the polls leading up to the caucus generally showed Clinton leading Sanders by 3-10% depending on the poll. On election day, it was a virtual tie.
So take the headlines touting Biden as the clear favorite to win with a degree of skepticism. We expect Biden to underperform the polling by approximately 5%.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 