Readers of this blog have known since early January that we believed that Sanders is the front runner. On January 3, 2019, we wrote that “it is Sanders who should be considered the Democratic front runner.” Now, suddenly, the mainstream media has caught on. Several new polls out of Iowa (Emerson) and New Hampshire (Boston Herald) show Sanders picking up support and leading both states. The prospect has brought forth headlines from sources like CNN and NBC expressing shock: “‘Oh my God, Sanders can win’: Democrats grapple with Bernie surge in Iowa” (NBC News 1/27/20).
Today, Nate Silver’s 538 adjusted the chances for Sanders winning the nomination from 21% to 29%. Silver still has Biden as the favorite at 42%. We remain doubtful about Biden’s chances given the enthusiasm gap among his supporters. Our beliefs are more in line with the betting markets such as PredictIt.org which for the first time on Saturday show Sanders as the favorite. PredictIt now gives Sanders a 39% chance of winning, slightly more than Biden at 35% followed by Bloomberg at 15% and Yang at 9%. We see the most likely scenarios as follows:
Base Case: Sanders wins Iowa with approximately 30% of the vote and then surges to a big win in New Hampshire, approaching 50% of the vote. We believe that Biden will likely come in fourth or fifth in Iowa, behind Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren. After Iowa, establishment Democrats will have a choice to make – which of these three has the best chance to beat Sanders. We believe they will settle on Klobuchar or Warren. Note that the establishment Newspapers (New York Times, Des Moines Register) have backed both of these candidates. By this time, the race will go to Nevada and then South Carolina followed by Super Tuesday. We believe the establishment will not be able to unite early enough, giving Sanders a clear path to win the nomination.
Second Most Likely Case: Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, but one of the other candidates — Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren — quickly becomes the establishment alternative and gains momentum. The race becomes a choice between the Establishment and Sanders. Democratic voters are concerned about Sanders’ electability and unite to support the Establishment candidate. The race then plays out similar to the 2016 election with the Establishment candidate winning a slim majority of the delegates.
There are, of course, many other possibilities. Biden, Warren, Buttigieg or Klobuchar could end up winning in Iowa and quickly become the favorite. Bloomberg could surprise on Super Tuesday and surge to a victory. Biden could prove more resilient and carry the African-American vote in the South and defeat Sanders. No one could win a majority leading to a brokered convention. The reality is that political pundits tend to underestimate the range of potential real life outcomes. We will be watching closely on February 3rd to see the results of the Iowa Caucuses. We will be most confident in our base case scenario if (i) Sanders wins and (ii) Biden places outside the top two places. For now, it’s time to be patient and watch what happens over the next week.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 