With just a week to go before the Iowa Caucus next Monday night, there are a number of interesting stories brewing. We highlight five here.
First, Democrats had hoped that the party would unite behind a single candidate who could lead the party against President Trump next November. However, even before the first caucus, the ghosts of the 2016 campaign are already threatening party unity. A week ago it was Hillary Clinton coming out of the shadows to state that “Nobody likes him” when speaking about Bernie Sanders and indicating that she might have trouble supporting Sanders (despite his backing her in 2016). Then this week, DNC chair Tom Perez announced the slate of nominees for the Democratic Convention and who should emerge? None other than a slate packed with Hillary supporters including John Podesta, featured in the leaked DNC emails as writing that he wanted to “grind[] Sanders to a pulp.” Then there are other establishment characters such as Barney Frank who was instrumental in blocking Sanders team’s changes to the platform in 2016. Sanders Co-Chair Nina Turner responded quickly, stating that “the DNC should be ashamed of itself because it really is a slap in the face to folks who were asking for reform.” Good reminder that the fireworks are just getting started. Look for a divisive war between the progressive and establishment wings.
Second, the impeachment saga has dragged on, forcing several of the Presidential hopefuls to be stuck in Washington DC. We have refrained on writing about the impeachment efforts for weeks because very little new has emerged, public opinion is largely unchanged, and the ultimate acquittal remains highly likely. One might ask why the Democrats ever launched this effort. Some Sanders supporters have speculated that the establishment was trying to keep Bernie off the campaign trail, allowing Biden to spend more time in Iowa without competitors. However, we think that logic is flawed as impeachment has shined a light on Biden’s sordid family financial dealings in Ukraine and China. Rather, we believe that impeachment was fueled by self-preservation on the part of Nancy Pelosi and other establishment Democrats. As soon as AOC took to twitter to condemn her failure to seek impeachment of Trump, Pelosi knew that if she did not act, she would likely face a primary challenge from the left and might lose her role as Speaker of the House.
Third, Peter Schweitzer, author of the 2016 book Clinton Cash, which highlighted the cash payments from foreign governments to the Clinton Foundation at the same time that Clinton served as Secretary of State, is out with a new book entitled Profiles in Corruption. This time, Schweitzer has taken aim at several leading progressives including Sanders, Biden and Warren. We have not read the book yet, but it will be interesting to see if any of the financial deals highlighted in the book become a similar albatross that Hillary Clinton faced in 2016. We note that as of this evening Profiles in Corruption was #2 on the Amazon book list.
Fourth, we are seeing some interesting political calculations being made by the Biden camp. They seem to be going all-in on Iowa in an attempt to finish first or second against Sanders. At the same time, reports suggest that they are pulling resources from New Hampshire. They have significantly reduced their media buys in the state, apparently conceding the nation’s first primary to Sanders and Warren. Instead, they appear to be focusing on Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina. It’s also a reminder that Biden’s camp has limited campaign resources. It’s not necessarily a bad strategy if he can pull off a win or second place finish in Iowa, but we wonder what happens if he finishes third or lower in Iowa.
Finally, we close by noting that there are now three states where early voting is underway. We highlighted last week that Minnesota was the first state to allow early voting. Now, Michigan and Vermont have also started. Early voting in California will start next Monday. The number of states allowing early voting will grow significantly over the next few weeks. Our view is that the proliferation of states with early voting will favor the better organized campaigns, probably Sanders, Warren and possibly Bloomberg.
Thanks for reading. We are truly excited to see what transpires next Monday!
NewEnglandPolitics.com 