Caucuses and primaries can be challenging to predict, but we thought we would provide our predictions for tomorrow night and top things to be on the lookout for. Let’s start with our predictions. We believe that Bernie Sanders will win, but recognize that in politics there are a lot of different potential outcomes. Here is our prediction of the caucus finish: 1. Bernie Sanders; 2. Pete Buttigieg; 3. Elizabeth Warren; 4. Joe Biden; 5. Amy Klobuchar; 6. Andrew Yang, 7. Tulsi Gabbard, and 8. Tom Steyer.
Here are five things to watch. First, who wins and by how much? Anything less than a win for Sanders will be perceived as an upset. The two most recent polls by Emerson and DFP released today both have Sanders leading by 7% with 28% of the vote. Given that undecided voters will have to select someone as will supporters of the “nonviable” candidates that don’t reach the 15% hurdle, we believe that Sanders will likely break 30% and could easily reach 35%. A first place finish for Sanders above 35% should be considered a very strong finish, 30-35% a good performance, and anything other than a win would be considered a disappointment. A win by any other candidate will be a huge upset, but would probably be a signal that Sanders has antagonized supporters of other candidates.
Second, who comes in second and third? If you believe the polls, it would likely be Joe Biden in second. We don’t think that is going to happen due to the lack of enthusiasm on the ground for Biden. We believe it will be either Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren, but give Buttigieg the edge. The key will be which of these candidates gathers the most support in the second round vote among candidates that don’t reach the 15% threshold. Whoever takes second will likely become the primary alternative to Sanders. If it’s Biden, the race could quickly become a battle between Biden and Sanders (and possibly Bloomberg). If Buttigieg or Warren takes second, we think Biden will be viewed as weak and his support could quickly evaporate. Finally, if Klobuchar finishes in the top 3, we could see her gaining momentum as a credible more centrist candidate.
Third, who drops out after Iowa? We think that after Iowa only the top three candidates will have sufficient momentum to be credible in New Hampshire. Tom Steyer probably will not drop out until after Nevada and South Carolina, but he really should. We doubt that any of the top five candidates will drop out, but if Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg does not finish in the top 3, their campaigns will essentially be over. Warren and Biden will certainly be competing in New Hampshire no matter what. If candidates drop out, it will be interesting to see if they make an endorsement. We think some of the establishment candidates might try to rally together against Sanders.
Fourth, what is the turnout? In 2016, 171,000 turned out for the Democratic caucus while 189,000 turned out for the Republican caucus. We expect turnout on the Democratic side to be up. A number above 200,000 would be a good sign, above 250,000 really good. Anything less than the 2016 turnout would be really poor.
Fifth, what is Trump’s margin on the Republican side? We believe Trump will win more than 95% of the caucus vote. Less than 90% would be a bad sign for Trump. 98% and above would be very good.
The caucus starts at 7 PM Central Time. The Democratic Party has indicated that they will release the results of the initial vote, the second round vote and the ultimate delegate count. The exact timing is not clear, but we will probably start getting results about 9 PM Central Time and should have a pretty good idea of the likely outcome by 10 PM. It certainly will be a fascinating night.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 