With the vote from Iowa still trickling in and Impeachment behind us, here are five interesting story lines emerging.
First, the results of the Iowa Caucus continue to trickle in but the outcome could not be more muddled. Bernie Sanders is leading the first and second round vote, but Pete Buttigieg is likely to win a higher number of national delegates. According to Green Papers, the probable allocation of Iowa’s 41 delegates is 14 for Buttigieg, 12 for Sanders, 8 for Warren, 7 for Biden, and 1 for Klobuchar. This split decision was exactly what many establishment Democrats feared.
Second, the likelihood of a brokered convention on the Democratic side is rising. Nate Silver now says that there is a 27% chance that no one gets a majority of the Democratic delegates. The Democrats amended the way they allocate delegates, adopting a proportional allocation methodology nationwide. They also moved up more states to create more of a national primary day on Super Tuesday in March. More split pluralities and the rise of the billionaire Bloomberg campaign suggest that candidates may stay in hoping to pick up delegates and force a convention fight.
Third, speaking about Bloomberg, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo (D) became the first governor and most high profile political figure to endorse Mayor Bloomberg. Speculation is swirling that Raimondo is angling for a potential Vice President position on a Bloomberg ticket. Raimondo, a moderate Democrat, was immediately criticized by the progressive wing for endorsing Bloomberg. Raimondo is helping Bloomberg set up a ground game in Rhode Island for the April primary.
Fourth, the Sanders – Buttigieg feud is growing. By claiming victory when only 1% of the precincts had reported, Buttigieg angered the Sanders campaign. Sanders is himself claiming victory, having won the first and second round popular votes. On Twitter, Sanders’ supporters are bitterly attacking Buttigieg. If Buttigieg were to win the nomination, we doubt whether many Sanders supporters would actually vote for Buttigieg in the general election.
Finally, we highlight that the New Hampshire delegate allocation approach is likely to favor Sanders. In New Hampshire, candidates must get 15% of the vote to be considered, but unlike Iowa, voters for the non-viable candidates do not get a chance to select a second choice. Thus, the rules favor a candidate such as Sanders who almost certainly will surpass the minimum threshold. New Hampshire allocates 8 delegates to each of its 2 congressional districts and 8 statewide delegates proportionally. We believe Sanders will likely pick up a majority of these delegates.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 