The New Hampshire debate highlighted that the Democratic race is essentially becoming a two way race: Sanders v. the Establishment. Sanders has pushed aside Elizabeth Warren and become the candidate of the progressive left. Sanders’ advantage is that he is the most progressive candidate on every issue and his followers are very committed and have made up their mind on who they are going to support. The loyal Sanders team seems to represent approximately 25% of the Democratic electorate.
The real question is who is going to be the Democratic establishment candidate to take Sanders. Originally, that candidate was Joe Biden and nationally he retains name recognition and support among many Democrats. However, in debates like last night, Biden comes across as old and past his prime. He had a few decent moments, but also some cringeworthy comments such as when he said that he had taken a shot in Iowa and was going to take another in New Hampshire. He also has this odd habit of raising his voice, almost shouting, often saying “Here’s the deal.” It is not an effective debate approach. We think his support will continue to wane.
Mayor Pete Buttigieg had a great showing in Iowa and appears to be the primary beneficiary of the Biden collapse. That said, polls show that his support is shallow. People don’t really know him but have been favorably impressed by his debate performances and stump speech. Last night was another solid performance, but two issues were raised that are his achilles heel. First, he was asked by a moderator about deterioration of race relations and increase in criminal prosecutions of black teens for marijuana in South Bend while he was mayor and he gave a non-answer that was panned on Twitter by progressives. Second, he has very little experience. We continue to wonder if Democrats really want to nominate a mayor of a small mid-western city.
Senator Elizabeth Warren finished third in Iowa but does not seem to be catching momentum in New Hampshire. She is not as progressive as Sanders but not as new and exciting as Buttigieg. Her performance last night was solid. She did not make any mistakes but she also did not make many headlines. Her largest cheers came when she focused on her unconditional support for abortion at all times, even in the third trimester. She is in danger of not getting sufficient attention. We also think that Senator Amy Klobuchar’s continued presence is denying her sole support from the female vote.
Senator Amy Klobuchar spoke well last night. Her performance in these debates seems to be improving and she makes a compelling case that she can win in purple states. We found her attack on Buttigieg’s lack of experience to be compelling. Unlike Biden, she is sharp on the facts and is in her prime. Her fifth place performance in Iowa is probably not enough to give her the momentum she needs in New Hampshire, but she has picked up some high profile newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire. We think she would be a strong establishment choice, but it’s probably too late for her to get the national campaign in place.
Tom Steyer’s primary role last night was to highlight the Buttigieg’s lack of experience. He is running an ad on TV in New Hampshire that makes this exact point. Other than that, he really does not belong on the stage. Andrew Yang also had little impact on the debate last night. His supporters are upset that he got so little speaking time. The real question is who his supporters will vote for once he drops out.
The Democratic establishment is afraid of a Sanders victory. The problem is that their first choice, Joe Biden, has collapsed. The establishment is now seeking a replacement for Biden. They have four choices: Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar and the billionaire Bloomberg lurking on Super Tuesday. It’s not at all clear which of these candidates will consolidate the support in time to stop Sanders. The longer the vote stays splintered, the more likely that Sanders has a real path to the nomination.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 