With Bernie Sanders scoring a narrow plurality victory in New Hampshire over Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic race remains extremely unsettled. The results did little to clarify who will be the ultimate victor. Here are our key takeaways.
First, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren had poor nights. Absent a miraculous recovery in Nevada or South Carolina, both the Biden and Warren campaigns seem to be fading.
Second, Bernie Sanders underperformed the polls again, but still won more votes than any other candidate. The good news for Sanders is that once again he can claim a popular vote victory making him the top vote getter in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The bad news is that he appears to be a fairly weak front runner with only marginal support beyond his base. We believe that he has a good shot of winning again in Nevada and South Carolina due to strong local organizations and higher hispanic and black share of the population, but he seems a long way to winning a majority of the Democratic vote.
Third, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have picked up momentum and votes from Biden and Warren. Buttigieg continues to do well in more rural areas, while Klobuchar won many late deciding voters. The challenge for Buttigieg and Klobuchar is that they do not have the ground game that Sanders does and are competing with one another as well as Bloomberg for the moderate lane.
Fourth, turnout was fairly good for the Democrats. With 85% of the precincts called, turnout was 260,000, already more than the 249,000 that turned out in 2016 in the Democratic race. It’s not a huge wave, but it was certainly better than the turnout in Iowa.
Fifth, while not on the ballot, Bloomberg had a problematic night. A video circulated online of Bloomberg speaking in racially charged tones supporting “Stop and Frisk.” We don’t think the progressive wing will ever support Bloomberg.
To conclude, we highlight that this remains an extremely fluid election. Sanders is the front runner, but there is also a very real chance that none of the candidates is going to be able to win a majority of the delegates. That should have Democrats very worried.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 