Latest from the campaign trail

There are a lot of fascinating events in the race for the White House. We highlight a few developments here:

First, we start with continued developments out of Iowa. Following the Iowa recanvassing of the caucus vote, Sanders moved into a virtual dead heat with Pete Buttigieg with each commanding 563 state delegate equivalents (SDEs). The Iowa democratic party said that Buttigieg leads by 0.08 SDEs over Sanders, despite getting several thousand fewer votes. Sanders’ campaign announced that they were moving for a formal recount in Iowa and believe that he will emerge as the winner of the SDE count once known errors were corrected.

Second, one of the novel elements of the 2020 Democratic nominating process is the widespread use of early voting. Remember that voting started in the state of Minnesota on January 17, a full 46 days before the Minnesota Democratic Primary on March 3. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire used early voting, but most Super Tuesday states including California and North Carolina have already launched early voting for the primary. Early voting in Texas starts tomorrow. Meanwhile, in Nevada, early voting for the nation’s second caucus is winding up tomorrow Feb 18. The early voting process is making the campaign a virtual national campaign, aiding candidates such as Sanders and Bloomberg who have the resources to conduct national campaigns and undermining the rising candidates such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

Third, Mike Bloomberg’s campaign appears to be gaining traction according to national polls, having moved into second place in several recent polls. Indeed, in several state polls including New Jersey, Virginia and Florida, Bloomberg is either in the lead or within striking distance. At the same time, more and more videos are emerging of Bloomberg making racially insensitive comments, belittling farmers, and calling for cuts to social security and medicare. Bloomberg’s rise is preventing other less progressive candidates (ie. Klobuchar, Biden and Buttigieg) from consolidating support while fueling backlash from the progressive wing.

Fourth, Sanders appears headed to victory in Nevada. Polls suggest that Sanders is leading in Nevada by as much as 19% over his nearest rivals Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer. A prominent Nevada Latino group endorsed Sanders today, highlighting the growing minority support backing his campaign. Sanders is also ramping up his fight against Bloomberg, attacking the billionaire for trying to buy the election and highlighting his comments on race. Nevada’s requirement that candidates get a minimum of 15% of the vote in each congressional district to be viable could also give Sanders a disproportionate share of the delegates.

There are certainly a number of unpredictable events including the next debate in Nevada on Wednesday night where Bloomberg will make his first appearance. For now, however, it seems that the stars seem to be aligning to give Sanders a path to the nomination. Saturday’s Nevada Caucus could signal a major shift as Sanders becomes the standard bearer.