The Nevada Caucuses will take place on Saturday after four days of early voting which ended on February 18 and a raucous debate where Mayor Bloomberg was widely panned on his performance. Here are the key items to watch on Saturday:
First, how much does Bernie Sanders win by? Anything less than an outright win will be considered a disappointment for Sanders. We think that Sanders needs to get more than 30% of the vote to be considered a solid win and win by a margin of at least 5%. We believe that Sanders will gather ~35% of the vote.
Second, how many delegates will Sanders get? There are 36 pledged delegates to be allocated based on voting, determined on a congressional district basis. We think Sanders could win ~50% of the delegates. Anything higher would be a great outcome for Sanders.
Third, who will finish second? It is currently a wide open race and remember that Bloomberg is not yet on the ballot. We believe that it will likely be Warren (coming off a strong debate), Biden (hoping to hang on) or Buttigieg in a close finish with approximately 15% of the vote. We think that Klobuchar has faltered since failing to name the President of Mexico. Likewise, we think that Steyer’s campaign is nearing its end.
Fourth, what will the final turnout be? So far, about 75,000 people have voted early, which suggests that total turnout will be considerably greater than the 89,000 that came out in 2016. A turnout above 110,000 people would be a very good outcome for the Democrats.
Fifth, will the Nevada Caucuses run smoothly? Nevada had planned to use the same app that Iowa used and failed spectacularly. With high turnout and officials scrambling to come up with an alternative approach to calculating the results, it will be a success if the Democrats can count the results quickly and avoid any embarrassing delays. We think they will get it right.
That’s all for tonight as we await the results in Nevada.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 