The results from Nevada are trickling in, but it’s already clear that Bernie Sanders is going to score a huge victory. We had highlighted that Sanders needed to win a larger share of the vote to claim a clear win and based on the early vote coming in, it appears that Sanders is going to exceed expectations. Sanders appears on target to get more than 40% of both the vote and delegates (and could reach 50%). The Nevada win is especially notable because he seems to have done very well with the Hispanic vote and fairly well with the African-American community. In 2016, Sanders struggled with the minority community, but in 2020 he has put together a progressive coalition that is resonating with minority communities.
The Nevada results also highlight that the opposition to Sanders is completely splintered. As we write, it’s not certain who will finish second, but it appears that Joe Biden may ride a strong showing with African-American voters to finish second, followed by Buttigieg and Warren. None of these candidates will finish with more than 20%. In addition, Klobuchar and Steyer had weak showings that is likely to lead them to drop out by early March after Super Tuesday, if not earlier. Then, there is Mayor Bloomberg who had a disastrous debate performance earlier in the week, making it very unclear who the establishment Democratic alternative to Sanders is going to be.
Speaking about the establishment, they are clearly getting worried. Earlier in the day, Sanders tweeted out that “I’ve got news for the Democratic establishment. They cannot stop us.” Up until recently, most Democrats have been somewhat cautious not to criticize Sanders too much, but now some establishment figures are speaking out. Former Clinton strategist James Carville recently called voting for Bernie Sanders “political suicide” and seemed to relish getting in a twitter battle with Sanders. In his otherwise damaging debate performance, Mayor Bloomberg indirectly referred to Sanders as a “communist.” The question now is whether the establishment will work actively to block Sanders or whether recognizing the inevitable, they will start to fall behind Sanders.
We think the establishment will soldier through Super Tuesday before determining if there is a hope for an establishment candidate to block Sanders. Our bet is that after Super Tuesday, none of the Democratic candidates will be well positioned to beat Sanders. Buttigieg, Biden, Warren and Klobuchar are running out of money and after disappointing performances on Super Tuesday, they will be helpless to stop the Sanders juggernaut. Bloomberg has the money, but after the debate debacle, we are not sure that he can mount a credible opposition to Sanders. It is possible that a Bloomberg – Biden – Buttigieg team could join forces to take on Sanders but it is going to take a lot of coordination and we don’t think that everyone (particularly Warren) will fall behind Bloomberg. It’s getting very late for the non-Sanders candidate to emerge.
Sanders is 3 for 3 and we would not be surprised if Sanders wins next week in South Carolina where his largest competition will be from Joe Biden. Then, on Super Tuesday March 3, Sanders is probably going to get a clear plurality of the vote and may rack up massive wins in states like California. We also don’t think that Sanders will moderate his message as he goes forward. When he wins the nomination, he is likely to select a very progressive running mate. He will have Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Illan Omar as spokespeople. The Democrats are betting that a socialist can energize the base. It is quite a gamble.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 