The magic number for Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination for President on the first ballot is 1,991 (the DNC requires 50% plus 1 delegate). There are 3,979 pledged delegates that will be eligible to vote in the first ballot in Milwaukee. If no candidate wins a majority on the first ballot, an additional 771 superdelegates will become eligible to vote and on the second ballot, a candidate must win 2,376 delegates to get the nomination.
So how likely is Sanders to reach the magic number on the first ballot? On Saturday, he won an estimated 22 out of the 36 pledged delegates in Nevada, with Biden winning 9 and Buttigieg 5. This gives Sanders the lead with 43 out of 101 delegates, with Buttigieg in second with 28 delegates, Biden in third with 15, and Warren in fourth with 8. The Democratic allocation process in most states allocates delegates by congressional district and requires that a candidate have a minimum of 15% to be a viable candidate. Thus, in states like Nevada where the vote was splintered among several candidates, a candidate such as Sanders who wins a plurality of the vote can still win a majority of the delegates. That is exactly what Sanders did in Nevada, winning approximately 40% of the second preference popular vote but winning a clear majority of the delegates.
Several excellent forecasting sites have put out pro forma estimates of how many delegates Sanders is likely to win based on polling. For example, Nate Silver’s 538 gives Sanders a 45% chance of reaching the 1,991 level and estimates that Sanders is currently on track to win 1,803 delegates, roughly 190 short of the required number of delegates. Similarly, JHK Forecasts projects that Sanders is likely to win 1,700 delegates. Both forecasts are principally based on polls and suggest that Sanders may fall slightly short of getting the required number.
We believe that Sanders’ chances are actually much higher than this to win on the first ballot for several reasons. First, we believe that Sanders campaign is much better organized on the ground than most of the other campaigns. Nevada was the first state where there was early voting and Sanders surprised on the upside relative to polling. Compare this with Iowa and New Hampshire where there was no early voting and late deciders went for other candidates rather than Sanders. The reality is that most other states, including most of the Super Tuesday states, permit early voting. Thus, we think Sanders is likely to outperform his polls relative to many of the other candidates on Super Tuesday.
Second, the forecasts generally assume that all of the candidates will stay in the race until the end. The reality is that most of the candidates (other than the self-funded billionaires Bloomberg and Steyer) do not have the money to stay in the race that long. Sanders and possibly Warren or Buttigieg can raise money to keep going from dedicated base of supporters. However, Klobuchar and Biden are not strong fund raisers. We think they will be forced out of the race unless they surprise on the upside on Super Tuesday. We also believe that Steyer and Gabbard will drop out after Super Tuesday. Delegates pledged to candidates who have suspended their campaign or dropped out are free to either continue to vote for the candidate they were selected for or to support a new candidate. The Democratic rules state that “No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person’s presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.” However, once a candidate drops out, delegates generally give their support to another candidate. Hence, we believe that many of the delegates pledged to a candidate that has dropped out could be lobbied to back Sanders should he fall slightly short. Thus, while 1,991 is the magic number, Sanders could get there even if he wins less than that number directly through caucuses and primaries.
We have analyzed many of the state-by-state delegates and believe that Sanders is well positioned to get very close to or exceed the required number of delegates. The good news is that we will know a great deal about the race over the next two weeks. On March 3 (Super Tuesday), 1,357 delegates will be up for grabs. To be on track to win on the first ballot, Sanders will have to win roughly 700 delegates on this day. Perhaps the key will be California where Sanders team is extremely well positioned and hoping to capture a clear majority of the state’s 415 delegates. Sanders also traveled to Texas for a rally for his Nevada victory rally. He knows that Texas has 228 delegates and should he also get a majority in that state, his chances of winning a majority increase dramatically. The anti-Sanders candidates will need to keep Sanders from scoring blowout wins in California and Texas (Bloomberg is the only other candidate able to run ads here given the cost) while notching up strong showings in states like Minnesota (Klobuchar could win), North Carolina and Virginia (Biden could run well with African American voters), and Massachusetts (Warren could win). We have done state-by-state projections and have Sanders winning 698 delegates on Super Tuesday which we think would put him on track to get very close to the magic number. If Sanders wins less than 650 delegates on Super Tuesday, it will become much less certain that he will win a majority. On the other hand, if he wins considerably more than 700, perhaps winning 725-750 delegates, his odds of winning on the first ballot become very strong.
As we go forward, we will be providing updates after each contest to highlight whether Sanders is on track to reach the majority 1,991 threshold.
NewEnglandPolitics.com 